Sunday, 10 June 2012

Asian Shares, Euro Climb on Spanish Bank Bailout


Asian markets rallied early Monday and the euro jumped higher on Spain's bank bailout, while sentiment was also boosted with Chinese economic data that was less bad than some had feared.

Investors welcomed the weekend news that Spain secured a EUR100 billion ($125 billion) loan to bolster its banking system, which makes the country the fourth and largest euro-zone economy to be rescued by its euro-zone partners.

Along with the forthcoming Greek elections, concerns relating to the health of Spain's banking system have been one of the dominant themes coming out of Europe in recent weeks, and the bailout provided an immediate boost to market sentiment.

"It's tempting to say that with the Spanish aid deal, the worst of the crisis is now behind us," said CLSA equity strategist Nicholas Smith in Tokyo.

Stocks rallied early in the day. Japan's Nikkei climbed 2% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained 2.1% while South Korea's Kospi was 1.6% higher. Singapore's Strait Times Index rose 1.4% and the China Shanghai Composite was up 0.3%.

In recent sessions, stocks have managed to stage what appears to be a sustained rally, pulling themselves off from the floor. The Nikkei and the Hang Seng Index are 4% and 3.8% respectively above their year-to-date lows. But traders could become cautious again ahead of the Greek election later this week, and markets still have a long way to go before they return to the peaks: the Nikkei remains 15.8% off its year-to-date high, while the Hang Seng is 12.5% lower.

The euro bounced back on the Spanish developments, climbing to $1.2634, compared to $1.2517 late on Friday in New York, and compounding the 0.7% gain it made last week.

The other main development over the weekend was China's economic data for May, which still pointed to a weakening economy, but was not as bad as some expected. China made a surprise cut to interest rates ahead of the data, which was taken as a signal by the market that May's figures were going to be very bad, and was partly to blame for a sell-off on Friday.

The most notable figure was inflation, with growth in the consumer price index much lower than expected, at 3%. This was taken as a positive because it potentially gives Beijing more space for further policy easing.
The improved risk sentiment was reflected in the performance of Asian currencies. The dollar gained to 79.60 yen early in Asia compared to 79.47 yen on Friday. The Australian dollar edged closer to parity with the dollar, at $0.9980, although a holiday in Australia on Monday is expected to keep the trading volume of the currency low.
China data also helped the price of oil, after China's crude imports reached a record high in May, which is probably due to stockpiling and anticipation of increased output after a round of refinery maintenance. Oil was up 2.3% early on Monday, at $85.99 a barrel.

Hong Kong-listed Chinese banks rose on Monday, recovering after heavy selling on Friday as investors became concerned that deregulation could damage the sector's net interest margins. The gains however underperformed the broader market rally: Industrial and Commercial Bank of China regained 1.2% after losing 4.9% on Friday, while China Construction Bank added 0.8%, after a 4% drop at the end of last week.

China Unicom rose 4.6% in Hong Kong, following news that its parent will buy a 4.6% stake in Unicom from Spanish telecoms company Telefonica SA for around EUR1.13 billion.

Also in Hong Kong, Chinese developer Greentown China soared 36.5% after placing new shares and convertible bonds to Wharf. The Hong Kong developer will become Greentown's second-largest shareholder, which analysts believe could provide greater clarity on the company's long-term cash flow management. Wharf however, fell 2.7%.
-Write to Daniel Inman at Daniel.Inman@wsj.com

Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates


                           Latest       Previous   %Chg    Daily    Daily   %Chg 
Dollar Rates                               Close            High      Low  12/31 
 
 
USD/JPY Japan            79.61-64       79.60-65   0.00    79.72    79.40  +3.52 
EUR/USD Euro            1.2633-36      1.2638-42  -0.04   1.2668   1.2620  -2.51 
GBP/USD U.K.            1.5551-56      1.5509-15  +0.27   1.5560   1.5506  +0.08 
USD/CHF Switzerland     0.9508-12      0.9501-11  +0.04   0.9518   0.9481  +1.47 
USD/CAD Canada          1.0209-14      1.0219-29  -0.12   1.0229   1.0206  +0.02 
AUD/USD Australia       0.9974-78      0.9984-89  -0.10   1.0007   0.9968  -2.28 
NZD/USD New Zealand     0.7762-68      0.7766-74  -0.06   0.7785   0.7754  -0.14 
 
Euro Rates 
 
EUR/JPY Japan           100.60-64      100.55-69  +0.00   100.90   100.34  +1.07 
EUR/GBP U.K.            0.8122-25      0.8146-50  -0.31   0.8157   0.8118  -3.94 
EUR/CHF Switzerland     1.2014-18      1.2010-20  +0.01   1.2018   1.2008  -1.28 
EUR/CAD Canada         1.2898-906      1.2914-31  -0.16   1.2948   1.2894  -2.49 
EUR/AUD Australia       1.2661-68      1.2653-69  +0.03   1.2681   1.2642  -0.25 
EUR/DKK Denmark         7.4316-34     7.4295-353  +0.00   7.4367   7.4306  -0.04 
EUR/NOK Norway          7.5819-92     7.5724-908  +0.05   7.5898   7.5742  -2.07 
EUR/SEK Sweden          8.8820-86    8.8881-9019  -0.11   8.9104   8.8802  -0.35 
EUR/CZK Czech Rep.      25.316-57     25.264-384  +0.05   25.358   25.317  -1.01 
EUR/HUF Hungary       293.72-4.56    293.98-4.82  -0.09   294.18   293.94  -6.65 
EUR/PLN Poland         4.2597-706     4.2755-885  -0.39   4.2775   4.2628  -4.53 
 
Yen Rates 
 
AUD/JPY Australia        79.42-48       79.44-56  -0.06    79.69    79.16  +1.57 
GBP/JPY U.K.            123.80-89      123.45-57  +0.27   124.03   123.34  +3.60 
CAD/JPY Canada         77.94-8.01       77.82-94  +0.13    78.09    77.68  +3.51 
NZD/JPY New Zealand      61.79-87       61.83-92  -0.07    61.97    61.58  +3.38 
 
Other Dollar Rates 
 
USD/CZK Czech Rep.      20.038-68      19.984-20  +0.12   20.069   20.000  +1.53 
USD/HUF Hungary       232.49-3.12    232.61-3.22  -0.05   233.06   232.38  -4.25 
USD/DKK Denmark         5.8822-28     5.8785-812  +0.05   5.8902   5.8678  +2.53 
USD/NOK Norway          6.0012-60      5.9902-06  +0.13   6.0082   5.9850  +0.45 
USD/PLZ Poland          3.3715-96     3.3830-925  -0.36   3.3850   3.3746  -2.07 
USD/RUB Russia         32.124-356      31.846-03  -1.24   32.489   32.188  +0.28 
USD/SEK Sweden          7.0302-44     7.0329-417  -0.07   7.0553   7.0286  +2.21 
USD/ZAR S. Africa      8.3063-138     8.3100-488  -0.23   8.3277   8.3100  +2.75 
 
USD/CNY China           6.3673-94      6.3739-60  -0.10   6.3741   6.3686  +0.78 
USD/HKD Hong Kong       7.7574-80      7.7576-82   0.00   7.7584   7.7576  -0.12 
USD/MYR Malaysia      3.0767-2034    3.0754-2020  +0.04   3.0811   3.1952  -1.18 
USD/INR India           55.250-60      55.418-33  -0.31   55.273   55.090  +4.21 
USD/IDR Indonesia         9425-50       9157-525  +1.03     9432     9385  +4.48 
USD/PHP Philippines    43.121-362     43.128-368   0.00   43.155   43.356  -1.37 
USD/SGD Singapore       1.2766-68      1.2740-48  +0.18   1.2778   1.2730  -1.53 
USD/KRW S. Korea    1135.09-82.50  1134.59-82.10  +0.04  1168.89  1165.90  -0.16 
USD/TWD Taiwan         29.869-930     29.889-970  -0.10   29.949   29.900  -1.21 
USD/THB Thailand     30.582-1.850   30.568-1.834  +0.05   30.619   31.768  -1.21 
USD/VND Vietnam        20930-1000     20557-1206   0.00    20970    21000  -0.74 
 
USD/BRR Brazil         2.0191-222     2.0031-432  -0.12   2.0253   2.0222  +8.31 
USD/MXN Mexico         13.8310-46    13.8279-820  -0.16  13.8789  13.8310  -0.81 
USD/ARS Argentina     4.3581-4848    4.3559-4826  +0.05   4.3627   4.4730  +2.61 
 
Source: ICAP Plc. 

CHARTING FOREX: Dollar Biased Down Vs FX Majors Except Yen This Week


 By Jerry Tan 
 
SINGAPORE--Following is technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
 
        USD/JPY 
 
1st support - 79.11 (minor) 
1st resistance - 80.14 (minor) 
2nd support - 78.61 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 80.61 (minor) 
 
USD/JPY (last 79.63) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish. Resistance is at the May 22 high of 80.14, currently near the 100-day moving average; a breach would expose the upside to the 80.56-80.61 band, defined by the May 16 high and the May 2 high and currently near the 55-day moving average; and then to the April 27 high of 81.43 and the 81.71-81.77 band, defined by the April 25 high and the April 20 high. Support is at Friday's low of 79.11; breach would expose the downside to Wednesday's low of 78.61, currently near the 200-day moving average, and then to the June 1 low of 77.65 and the Feb. 14 low of 77.36. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 6 low of 76.49, and then the Feb. 1 reaction low of 76.02. USD/JPY negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure is turning bullish at the oversold level. However, the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below 77.65 would open the way down to 76.02, and then to the Oct. 31 record low of 75.31 in the weeks ahead.
 
        EUR/USD 
 
1st support - 1.2435 (minor) 
1st resistance - 1.2825 (minor) 
2nd support - 1.2375 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 1.2935 (minor) 
 
EUR/USD (last 1.2641) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish. Resistance is at the May 21 high of 1.2825; a breach would expose the upside to the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 1.2935, and then to 1.2994, the previous base set on April 16. An extension of the rise would target the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 1.3054, and then the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.3231. Support is at Friday's low of 1.2435; a breach would target the June 4 low of 1.2375, and then 1.2288, the 23-month low hit on June 1. An extension of the fall would target the June 29, 2010 low of 1.2151. EUR/USD negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure has turned bullish at the oversold level. However, the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below 1.2288 would open the way down to the psychological 1.2000 line, and then to the June 7, 2010 low of 1.1875 in the weeks ahead.
 
       AUD/USD 
 
1st support - 0.9817 (minor) 
1st resistance - 1.0126 (minor) 
2nd support - 0.9706 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 1.0143 (minor) 
 
AUD/USD (last 0.9983) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the pair stays above Friday's low of 0.9817. The daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish, but the latter is at the overbought level. Resistance is at the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0126, and then at the May 10 high of 1.0143; a breach would target the May 7 high of 1.0219, roughly matching the previous base set on April 11; and then the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0261. An extension of the rise would target the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0358. But a fall below 0.9817 would temper the near-term positive outlook, targeting Tuesday's low of 0.9706, and then the June 4 low of 0.9623. An extension of the fall would target 0.9579, the eight-month low hit on June 1. AUD/USD negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure has turned bullish at the oversold level. However, the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below 0.9579 would open the way down to the Oct. 4 swing low of 0.9386, and then to the Aug. 25, 2010 low of 0.8769 in the weeks ahead.
 
       NZD/USD 
 
1st support - 0.7614 (minor) 
1st resistance - 0.7797 (minor) 
2nd support - 0.7516 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 0.7902 (minor) 
 
NZD/USD (last 0.7767) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the pair stays above Friday's low of 0.7614. The daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish, but the latter is at the overbought level. Resistance is at the May 15 high of 0.7797; a breach would expose the upside to the May 10 minor reaction high of 0.7902, and then to the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 0.7925. An extension of the rise would target the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 0.7963, and then 0.8054, the previous base set on March 22. But a fall below 0.7614 would temper the near-term positive outlook, targeting Tuesday's low of 0.7516, and then the June 4 low of 0.7492. An extension of the fall would target 0.7451, the six-month low hit on June 1. NZD/USD negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure has turned bullish at the oversold level. However, the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below 0.7451 would open the way down to the Nov. 25 swing low of 0.7367, and then to the March 17, 2011 swing low of 0.7113 and the psychological 0.7000 line in the weeks ahead.
 
        GBP/USD 
 
1st support - 1.5401 (minor) 
1st resistance - 1.5600 (minor) 
2nd support - 1.5320 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 1.5717 (minor) 
 
GBP/USD (last 1.5555) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 1.5600; a breach would expose the upside to the May 28 high of 1.5717, and then to the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.5759. An extension of the rise would target the May 22 minor reaction high of 1.5848, currently near the 100-day moving average. Support is at Friday's low of 1.5401; a breach would target Tuesday's low of 1.5320, and then 1.5265, the 4.5-month low hit on June 1. An extension of the fall would target the Jan. 12 swing low of 1.5233, and then the psychological 1.5000 line and the July 12, 2010 low of 1.4946. GBP/USD negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure is turning bullish at the oversold level. However, the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below the 1.5233 support would open the way down to the psychological 1.5000 line, and then to the May 20, 2010 swing low of 1.4230 in the weeks ahead.
 
        USD/CHF 
 
1st support - 0.9363 (minor) 
1st resistance - 0.9657 (minor) 
2nd support - 0.9292 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 0.9677 (minor) 
 
USD/CHF (last 0.9506) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish. Support is at the May 21 reaction low of 0.9363; a breach would expose the downside to the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 0.9292, and then to the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 0.9223. An extension of the fall would target the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 0.9176. Resistance is at Friday's high of 0.9657; a breach would target Tuesday's high of 0.9677, and then the 0.9771-0.9785 band, defined by the 15-month high hit on June 1 and the Jan. 11, 2011 high. A rise above 0.9785 would expose the upside to the psychological 1.0000 line, and then to 1.0066, the Dec. 1, 2010 high. USD/CHF positive medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure has turned bearish at the overbought level. However, the five-week moving average is still above the 15-week moving average and rising. A rise above 0.9785 would open the way up to 1.0066, and then to the July 27, 2010 high of 1.0640 in the weeks ahead.
 
        USD/CAD 
 
1st support - 1.0149 (minor) 
1st resistance - 1.0354 (minor) 
2nd support - 1.0098 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 1.0425 (minor) 
 
USD/CAD (last 1.0207) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish. Support is at the May 22 low of 1.0149; a breach would target the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0098, and then the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0054. An extension of the fall would target the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0011, and then the May 15 low of 0.9986. Resistance is at Friday's high of 1.0354; a breach would target Tuesday's high of 1.0425, and then 1.0446, the six-month high hit on June 4. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 25 high of 1.0523. USD/CAD positive medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure has turned bearish at the overbought level. However, the five-week moving average is still above the 15-week moving average and rising. A rise above the 1.0523 resistance would open the way up to the 1.0657-1.0677 band, defined by the Oct. 4 high, 2011 high and the July 6, 2010 high; and then to the May 25, 2010 high of 1.0851 in the weeks ahead.

Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates


Dollar Rates                               Close            High      Low  12/31 
 
 
USD/JPY Japan            79.68-70       79.60-65  +0.08    79.70    79.40  +3.61 
EUR/USD Euro            1.2639-42      1.2638-42  +0.00   1.2668   1.2620  -2.47 
GBP/USD U.K.            1.5554-58      1.5509-15  +0.28   1.5557   1.5506  +0.09 
USD/CHF Switzerland     0.9503-08      0.9501-11  -0.01   0.9518   0.9481  +1.42 
USD/CAD Canada          1.0205-10      1.0219-29  -0.16   1.0229   1.0206  -0.02 
AUD/USD Australia       0.9983-88      0.9984-89  -0.01   1.0007   0.9968  -2.18 
NZD/USD New Zealand     0.7774-80      0.7766-74  +0.09   0.7785   0.7754  +0.01 
 
Euro Rates 
 
EUR/JPY Japan           100.71-76      100.55-69  +0.12   100.90   100.34  +1.18 
EUR/GBP U.K.            0.8125-28      0.8146-50  -0.27   0.8157   0.8124  -3.90 
EUR/CHF Switzerland     1.2012-16      1.2010-20  -0.01   1.2018   1.2008  -1.30 
EUR/CAD Canada          1.2900-08      1.2914-31  -0.14   1.2948   1.2898  -2.48 
EUR/AUD Australia       1.2655-64      1.2653-69  -0.01   1.2681   1.2642  -0.28 
EUR/DKK Denmark         7.4302-48     7.4295-353  +0.00   7.4367   7.4306  -0.04 
EUR/NOK Norway         7.5774-852     7.5724-908   0.00   7.5898   7.5742  -2.12 
EUR/SEK Sweden        8.8948-9028    8.8881-9019  +0.04   8.9104   8.8936  -0.20 
EUR/CZK Czech Rep.     25.285-361     25.264-384  -0.01   25.358   25.317  -1.06 
EUR/HUF Hungary         294.07-50      293.98-05  -0.04   294.18   293.94  -6.60 
EUR/PLN Poland         4.2672-746     4.2755-885  -0.26   4.2775   4.2732  -4.40 
 
Yen Rates 
 
AUD/JPY Australia        79.56-60       79.44-56  +0.10    79.69    79.16  +1.74 
GBP/JPY U.K.          123.93-4.00      123.45-57  +0.37   123.93   123.34  +3.70 
CAD/JPY Canada           78.04-10       77.82-94  +0.25    78.04    77.68  +3.63 
NZD/JPY New Zealand    61.94-2.00       61.83-92  +0.16    61.97    61.58  +3.62 
 
Other Dollar Rates 
 
USD/CZK Czech Rep.      20.003-60      19.984-20  +0.01   20.069   20.000  +1.42 
USD/HUF Hungary         232.66-96      232.61-03  -0.05   233.06   232.38  -4.25 
USD/DKK Denmark        5.8784-810     5.8785-812   0.00   5.8902   5.8678  +2.48 
USD/NOK Norway          5.9947-98      5.9902-06  +0.02   6.0060   5.9850  +0.35 
USD/PLZ Poland         3.3759-812     3.3830-925  -0.27   3.3850   3.3774  -1.99 
USD/RUB Russia         32.093-380      31.846-03  -1.25   32.489   32.188  +0.27 
USD/SEK Sweden         7.0369-420     7.0329-417  +0.03   7.0553   7.0286  +2.32 
USD/ZAR S. Africa      8.3095-184     8.3100-488  -0.19   8.3252   8.3104  +2.80 
 
USD/CNY China           6.3671-92      6.3739-60  -0.11   6.3741   6.3688  +0.78 
USD/HKD Hong Kong       7.7574-80      7.7576-82   0.00   7.7584   7.7576  -0.12 
USD/MYR Malaysia      3.0751-2018    3.0754-2020  -0.01   3.0811   3.1952  -1.23 
USD/INR India           55.418-33      55.418-33   0.00   55.648   54.900  +4.53 
USD/IDR Indonesia          9412-3       9157-525  +0.76     9412     9385  +4.20 
USD/PHP Philippines    43.121-362     43.128-368   0.00   43.155   43.356  -1.37 
USD/SGD Singapore       1.2747-54      1.2740-48  +0.05   1.2775   1.2730  -1.65 
USD/KRW S. Korea     1166.59-7.10  1134.59-82.10  +0.73  1166.89  1165.90  +0.54 
USD/TWD Taiwan         29.849-910     29.889-970  -0.17   29.949   29.900  -1.27 
USD/THB Thailand     30.566-1.834   30.568-1.834   0.00   30.619   31.768  -1.26 
USD/VND Vietnam        20930-1000     20557-1206   0.00    20970    21000  -0.74 
 
USD/BRR Brazil          2.0227-58     2.0031-432  +0.05   2.0253   2.0250  +8.50 
USD/MXN Mexico        13.8383-412    13.8279-820  -0.11  13.8789  13.8410  -0.76 
USD/ARS Argentina     4.3555-4822    4.3559-4826  -0.01   4.3627   4.4730  +2.55 
 
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