Daily Morning Report 12/12/2012 | Forex Trading analysis

Following what has been an impressive run this year, the Australian dollar took a small breather against its U.S. rival in Wednesday’s Asian session. A weak batch of consumer data appeared to be the culprit.

In news published earlier, the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment  posted a surprise 4.1% month-on-month drop in December to 100.0 when expectations were for an increase (rose 5.2% in November) after the RBA cut the cash rate earlier this month. The index is now below the November 2011 level when the RBA first cut the cash rate in the current easing cycle with cuts totaling 175 basis points so far. While consumers with mortgages responded positively to the RBA rate cut (confidence rose 4.4% for this category), other respondents were quite downbeat.

In other news, the U.S. dollar was modestly higher against some of its major rivals in Wednesday’s Asian session and fractionally lower against some of the other majors as traders wait for headlines out of the Federal Open Market Committee later today.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve concludes its final monetary policy meeting of the year and with U.S. interest rates at historic lows, there is little room for the central bank to affect change on that front. However, the dollar will be in play as traders await the Fed’s sentiment on additional quantitative easing. Monetary stimulus typically depresses the dollar and drives riskier assets higher.

Daily Morning Report 07/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

 The number of Americans  applying for first-time claims for unemployment insurance payments came climbed less than expected. The Labour Department reported that applications for unemployment benefits rose to 370,000 last week, following an upwardly revision to 395,000 from 393,000 initially reported the previous week.

The BoE left its monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting, maintaining the main interest rate at 0.5 percent and the asset purchases at £375 billion. Britain’s central bank is in a difficult position as inflation remains above the target, limiting the bank’s ability to ease the policy, while the recession calls for more accommodative measures.

Eurozone GDP showed a third-quarter contraction of 0.1 percent, to reflect a 0.6 percent drop in annual. German factory orders was the exception to the overall negative tone with orders rising 3.9 percent in October, to represent a 2.4 percent contraction in annual terms

Daily Morning Report 06/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

 The  Aussie Dollar! traded higher as the unemployment rate in Australia beat expectations edging slightly lower to 5.2 percent in November and added 13,900 new workers to the labour force. Remarkably, the economy shed 4,200 full-time workers while it seems the gains in November were the result of adding 18,100 new part-time staffers. The participation rate remained unchanged at 65.1 percent

The services industry in the United States is in tune with consumer spending figures than the ISM manufacturing report released fell to its lowest level of the year at 49.5 in November continues to grow and at a fast pace.

Decline came when sales of Spanish 3, 7, and 10-year bonds disappointed a maximum target of 4.5 billion Euros by only raising 4.25 billion in the auction. Euro-zone retail sales were reported to have declined 1.2% in October, the disappointing number kept EURUSD below 1.3100. Later today the ECB will announce the interest rate expectations are for the rate to be left at 0.75%. Also, an updated estimate of the Euro-zone GDP for Q3 will be released the previous estimate saw a 0.1% decline.

Slight fall in New Business

The UK service sector registered little change in business activity during November as incoming new work fell slightly for the first time in nearly two years. A tough economic climate was commonly reported to have undermined efforts to secure new business. UK Stock! This also weighed on service sector confidence, with sentiment falling in November to the lowest of 2012 so far. After accounting for seasonal factors, the Business Activity Index recorded 50.2, compared to 50.6 in October.

US ADP

Private sector employment increased by 118,000 jobs from October to November, according to the November ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Jobs! Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The October 2012 report, which reported job gains of 158,000, was revised down by 1,000 to 157,000 jobs.

ISM Services Gauge in U.S

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of U.S. non-manufacturing businesses, which covers about 90 percent of the economy, rose to 54.7 in November from the prior month’s 54.2, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today.  ISM! Readings above 50 signal expansion, and estimates ranged from 51 to 54.7. The ISM services survey covers industries ranging from utilities and retailing to housing, health care and finance.

Daily Afternoon Report 04/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

  The US dollar was broadly lower against the other major currencies as investor confidence was boosted by hopes that Greece’s plan to buy back debt will succeed. EURUSD found support after Greece launched a scheme to buy back its debt from private investors, as part of an agreement to unlock a new bailout package worth EUR44 billion. European Union finance ministers were holding talks in Brussels on Tuesday, to discuss banking supervision in the euro zone.

  The GBP remained supported after data showed that construction sector activity in the U.K. unexpectedly declined to a three month low in November.

  The yen strengthened after Monday’s weak U.S. manufacturing data and ongoing concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff enhanced the safe haven appeal of the currency.

 Click Here! The Australian dollar turned higher earlier after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to 3% from 3.25% in a widely anticipated decision. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian dollar remains “higher than might have been expected” given lower export prices and a weaker global outlook.

Technical Level

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	AUD/USD	USD/CAD	USD/CHF
R3:	1.3090	1.6137	82.33	1.0476	0.9971	0.9282
R2:	1.3075	1.6118	82.19	1.0466	0.9965	0.9275
R1:	1.3059	1.6100	82.12	1.0449	0.9957	0.9267
S1:	1.3045	1.6082	82.05	1.0432	0.9949	0.9252
S2:	1.3031	1.6064	81.91	1.0422	0.9942	0.9245
S3:	1.3015	1.6045	81.77	1.0395	0.9927	0.9238

Daily Morning Report 04/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The Australian Dollar rallied versus the U.S. Dollar as the Reserve Bank of Australia cut the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to 3.00 percent which was in-line with market expectations of a 90 percent probability that the RBA would cut the cost of capital today.

Forex Bulletproof 2.0 Patented Striker Technology! The global PMI release period was off to a good start, with outperformance in Asia and mostly floundering in Europe. US failed to hold its own, with its equivalent to the PMI, the ISM Manufacturing index, falling back into contraction, to its lowest official reading of the year. Just when US economic data was turning higher, it now appears to be backpedalling.

Greece offered to buy back as much as 10-billion Euros of bonds issued in a restructuring earlier this year, as an attempt to cut its debt load. The government said they will buy back bonds in a so called Dutch auction, and the government is willing to pay an average maximum purchase price of 34.1% for bonds maturing from 2023 to 2042. 

ECB and BoE are widely expected to maintain their current policy Forex Bulletproof 2.0 Patented Striker Technology! in December, we anticipate the Governing Council to strike a more dovish tone for monetary policy as the deepening recession in the euro-area threatens price stability. ECB President Mario Draghi may show a greater willingness to ease monetary policy further. BoE appears to be slowly moving away from its easing cycle as inflation stubbornly holds above the 2% target.

Technical Levels

	EUR/USD	GBP/USD	USD/JPY	AUD/USD	USD/CAD	USD/CHF
R3:	1.3075	1.6104	82.89	1.0479	0.9957	0.9297
R2:	1.3059	1.6090	82.75	1.0467	0.9942	0.9277
R1:	1.3045	1.6076	82.54	1.0447	0.9935	0.9268
S1:	1.3015	1.6030	82.19	1.0403	0.9919	0.9258
S2:	1.2985	1.6021	82.11	1.0383	0.9912	0.9248
S3:	1.2971	1.5998	82.05	1.0362	0.9906	0.9239

Daily Afternoon Report 03/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The euro pushed higher Monday after Greece launched a scheme to buy back its debt from private investors, as part of an agreement to unlock a new bailout package worth EUR44 billion.

Euro zone finance ministers were to hold talks in Brussels later in the day to discuss the terms of the new Greek aid deal, after Germany’s parliament gave it the green light on Friday. Furthermore, euro showed little reaction after Spain formally requested a bailout worth EUR37 billion for its banking sector.

Forex Bulletproof 2.0 Patented Striker Technology! Elsewhere, data showed that the final euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index remained unchanged at 46.2 in November, the highest level since March, but remaining in contraction territory for the 16th consecutive month.

In the U.K., data showed that the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1 last month, its highest level since August, from October's downwardly revised 47.3 and beating expectations for a reading of 48.1. However, the index remained below the 50.0 level which separates contraction from expansion for the seventh successive month.

Earlier Monday, official data showed that retail sales in Switzerland rose by 2.7% in October, less than the expected 4.1% increase. A separate report showed that the SVME PMI rose to 48.5 in November, a four-month high, from a reading of 46.1 in October.

In other news, the yen remained under pressure ahead of upcoming elections on December 16 which could lead to further monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, whereas the Australian dollar remained also under pressure after official data were published showing that domestic retail sales were flat in October fuelled expectations for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its policy meeting on Tuesday.

In latest news, the Institute for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index fell to 49.5 in November from 51.7 a month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50, and economists’ estimates ranged from 49 to 53.5. 

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Daily Morning Report 03/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The Australian dollar traded lower versus the greenback as Australian business’ reported a 2.9 percent operating loss in the third quarter while inventories increased by 1.1 percent suggesting the overall economic climate appears to have slowed.

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The greenback has gained strongly versus the yen after the dissolution of parliament in Japan and the dollar yen rate has increased over 3% on the monthly basis; this scripts the largest increase since February this year.

The euro suffered a bit of a setback as the wake of Moody's downgrade of the euro zone rescue fund late last week.  China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to a 7-month high of 50.6 in November from 50.2 in October, following a preliminary private sector survey that showed factory activity reviving to a 13-month high.

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