Friday, 26 October 2012

Daily Afternoon Report 26/10/2012

Earlier in the day, official data showed that Tokyo's core consumer price inflation, which excludes fell by 0.4% in October, less than the expected 0.5% decline, following after a 0.4% fall the previous month.

In the U.S., real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2012, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, non-residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

In addition to that, the dollar index rose to its highest in 1-1/2 months on Friday, helped by the U.S. currency gains against the euro as fresh worries about Greece weighed on the single currency.

Elsewhere, a preliminary report by the IMF showed on Thursday that the Greek debt will be above the target of 120 percent of GDP in 2020, hence Athens will need more reforms before emergency credit from international lenders can start flowing again.

A separate report showed that Spain's unemployment rate rose to 25.0% in the second quarter, from a rate of 24.6% the previous quarter, barely beating expectations for a rise to 25.1%.

Daily Morning Report 26/10/2012

In Europe, the IMF dropped the Irish GDP forecast to 1.1% and the Bundesbank points to downside risks of the 1.8% growth forecast in Germany. The Euro has extended its weakening against the US Dollar after the US closing bell in the back of news from APPL missing dividends estimates and news from Europe on Greece needs an additional €30 billion thru 2016.
The Aussie dollar started a rally early Wednesday morning that instigated with the surprise showing from 3Q CPI figures. The 2.0 per cent pace it does remove some pressure for aggressive cuts.
The Chinese PMI figures which printed better than expected but were 12 months into a reductionary phase. The UK Q3 GDP came much stronger-than-expected at 1% versus 0.6%.
 AUD/JPY is set to print gains for a third straight week, with traders observing for the Bank of Japan to increase its current 90 trillion Yen QE program by another 10 trillion Yen next week, according to the latest Japanese press reports.