Sunday, 10 June 2012

CHARTING FOREX: Dollar Biased Down Vs FX Majors Except Yen This Week


 By Jerry Tan 
 
SINGAPORE--Following is technical analysis of seven major currency pairs for this week:
 
        USD/JPY 
 
1st support - 79.11 (minor) 
1st resistance - 80.14 (minor) 
2nd support - 78.61 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 80.61 (minor) 
 
USD/JPY (last 79.63) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish. Resistance is at the May 22 high of 80.14, currently near the 100-day moving average; a breach would expose the upside to the 80.56-80.61 band, defined by the May 16 high and the May 2 high and currently near the 55-day moving average; and then to the April 27 high of 81.43 and the 81.71-81.77 band, defined by the April 25 high and the April 20 high. Support is at Friday's low of 79.11; breach would expose the downside to Wednesday's low of 78.61, currently near the 200-day moving average, and then to the June 1 low of 77.65 and the Feb. 14 low of 77.36. An extension of the fall would target the Feb. 6 low of 76.49, and then the Feb. 1 reaction low of 76.02. USD/JPY negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure is turning bullish at the oversold level. However, the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below 77.65 would open the way down to 76.02, and then to the Oct. 31 record low of 75.31 in the weeks ahead.
 
        EUR/USD 
 
1st support - 1.2435 (minor) 
1st resistance - 1.2825 (minor) 
2nd support - 1.2375 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 1.2935 (minor) 
 
EUR/USD (last 1.2641) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish. Resistance is at the May 21 high of 1.2825; a breach would expose the upside to the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 1.2935, and then to 1.2994, the previous base set on April 16. An extension of the rise would target the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 1.3054, and then the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.3231. Support is at Friday's low of 1.2435; a breach would target the June 4 low of 1.2375, and then 1.2288, the 23-month low hit on June 1. An extension of the fall would target the June 29, 2010 low of 1.2151. EUR/USD negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure has turned bullish at the oversold level. However, the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below 1.2288 would open the way down to the psychological 1.2000 line, and then to the June 7, 2010 low of 1.1875 in the weeks ahead.
 
       AUD/USD 
 
1st support - 0.9817 (minor) 
1st resistance - 1.0126 (minor) 
2nd support - 0.9706 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 1.0143 (minor) 
 
AUD/USD (last 0.9983) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the pair stays above Friday's low of 0.9817. The daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish, but the latter is at the overbought level. Resistance is at the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0126, and then at the May 10 high of 1.0143; a breach would target the May 7 high of 1.0219, roughly matching the previous base set on April 11; and then the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0261. An extension of the rise would target the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0358. But a fall below 0.9817 would temper the near-term positive outlook, targeting Tuesday's low of 0.9706, and then the June 4 low of 0.9623. An extension of the fall would target 0.9579, the eight-month low hit on June 1. AUD/USD negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure has turned bullish at the oversold level. However, the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below 0.9579 would open the way down to the Oct. 4 swing low of 0.9386, and then to the Aug. 25, 2010 low of 0.8769 in the weeks ahead.
 
       NZD/USD 
 
1st support - 0.7614 (minor) 
1st resistance - 0.7797 (minor) 
2nd support - 0.7516 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 0.7902 (minor) 
 
NZD/USD (last 0.7767) is likely to trade with risks skewed to the upside this week as long as the pair stays above Friday's low of 0.7614. The daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish, but the latter is at the overbought level. Resistance is at the May 15 high of 0.7797; a breach would expose the upside to the May 10 minor reaction high of 0.7902, and then to the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 0.7925. An extension of the rise would target the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 0.7963, and then 0.8054, the previous base set on March 22. But a fall below 0.7614 would temper the near-term positive outlook, targeting Tuesday's low of 0.7516, and then the June 4 low of 0.7492. An extension of the fall would target 0.7451, the six-month low hit on June 1. NZD/USD negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure has turned bullish at the oversold level. However, the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below 0.7451 would open the way down to the Nov. 25 swing low of 0.7367, and then to the March 17, 2011 swing low of 0.7113 and the psychological 0.7000 line in the weeks ahead.
 
        GBP/USD 
 
1st support - 1.5401 (minor) 
1st resistance - 1.5600 (minor) 
2nd support - 1.5320 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 1.5717 (minor) 
 
GBP/USD (last 1.5555) is likely to trade in a higher range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bullish. Resistance is at Thursday's high of 1.5600; a breach would expose the upside to the May 28 high of 1.5717, and then to the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.5759. An extension of the rise would target the May 22 minor reaction high of 1.5848, currently near the 100-day moving average. Support is at Friday's low of 1.5401; a breach would target Tuesday's low of 1.5320, and then 1.5265, the 4.5-month low hit on June 1. An extension of the fall would target the Jan. 12 swing low of 1.5233, and then the psychological 1.5000 line and the July 12, 2010 low of 1.4946. GBP/USD negative medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure is turning bullish at the oversold level. However, the five-week moving average is still below the 15-week moving average and falling. A drop below the 1.5233 support would open the way down to the psychological 1.5000 line, and then to the May 20, 2010 swing low of 1.4230 in the weeks ahead.
 
        USD/CHF 
 
1st support - 0.9363 (minor) 
1st resistance - 0.9657 (minor) 
2nd support - 0.9292 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 0.9677 (minor) 
 
USD/CHF (last 0.9506) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish. Support is at the May 21 reaction low of 0.9363; a breach would expose the downside to the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 0.9292, and then to the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 0.9223. An extension of the fall would target the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 0.9176. Resistance is at Friday's high of 0.9657; a breach would target Tuesday's high of 0.9677, and then the 0.9771-0.9785 band, defined by the 15-month high hit on June 1 and the Jan. 11, 2011 high. A rise above 0.9785 would expose the upside to the psychological 1.0000 line, and then to 1.0066, the Dec. 1, 2010 high. USD/CHF positive medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure has turned bearish at the overbought level. However, the five-week moving average is still above the 15-week moving average and rising. A rise above 0.9785 would open the way up to 1.0066, and then to the July 27, 2010 high of 1.0640 in the weeks ahead.
 
        USD/CAD 
 
1st support - 1.0149 (minor) 
1st resistance - 1.0354 (minor) 
2nd support - 1.0098 (minor) 
2nd resistance - 1.0425 (minor) 
 
USD/CAD (last 1.0207) is likely to trade in a lower range this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indicators are bearish. Support is at the May 22 low of 1.0149; a breach would target the 200-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0098, and then the 55-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0054. An extension of the fall would target the 100-day moving average, coming in now at 1.0011, and then the May 15 low of 0.9986. Resistance is at Friday's high of 1.0354; a breach would target Tuesday's high of 1.0425, and then 1.0446, the six-month high hit on June 4. An extension of the rise would target the Nov. 25 high of 1.0523. USD/CAD positive medium-term outlook is tempered as the weekly stochastic measure has turned bearish at the overbought level. However, the five-week moving average is still above the 15-week moving average and rising. A rise above the 1.0523 resistance would open the way up to the 1.0657-1.0677 band, defined by the Oct. 4 high, 2011 high and the July 6, 2010 high; and then to the May 25, 2010 high of 1.0851 in the weeks ahead.

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