Wednesday, 13 June 2012

MARKET TALK: Sell Bunds/Buy Tsys Good Hedge on Greece -Scotia

The best way to ride out of the Greek elections is not to short stocks, but to sell German bunds and buy Treasury bonds, says Charles Comiskey, head of Treasury trading at Bank of Nova Scotia. He argues that bunds would be losers as Germany might need to channel more money to safeguard the monetary union, and the rising fiscal burden is what has fueled worry that bunds could lose their safe-haven status. That concern was underlined after Pimco's Bill Gross indicated on Tuesday he dislikes bunds. A comfort, though: The 10-yr bund auction Wednesday didn't show investors fled in droves. The underperformance of bunds vs Treasurys has narrowed the yield gap sharply. Recently, the benchmark 10-yr Treasury note trades about 15bps above that of 10-yr bund, down from 37bps just a week ago and a recent peak of 50bps in April.

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