Thursday, 10 May 2012

Daily Forex Brief London: Thursday 10th May 2012

The euro's break below the 1.30 level has been sustained overnight and it's notable that the dollar has risen in all but two of the past nine sessions, looking at the dollar index chart. The political events in Europe, both in France and Greece, have served to enhance the more risk-averse trend that was already in place last week. Furthermore, in Europe we are seeing fresh signs of stress in the banking sector, such as widenings in cross-currency basis swaps and also Libor-OIS spreads. These both reflect greater concerns with regards to the fragility of the European banking sector, but at present there are few signs that the ECB is keen to get stuck in, already having undertaken two 3Y injections of liquidity. We've also seen disappointing trade data from China overnight (a bigger balance but also a slowdown in both exports and imports). Meanwhile, Asian equities are declining for a sixth consecutive session, the MSCI Asia (ex-Japan) index is now around 7% up on the year, having stood 16% higher at the end of February. Reality is biting hard and not only in Europe

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