Daily Morning Report 15/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

In Asian trading on Thursday US dollar fell against the major currencies on weak data release earlier on Europe and the US.

In the eurozone data revealed that industrial production declined 2.5% in September, well beyond expectations for a more modest 1.9% decline. This sparked fears that the eurozone's preliminary gross domestic product rate for the third quarter will disappoint later Thursday. France, Germany and Italy are also to release individual GDP reports.

In the US, Commerce Department reported earlier that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in October, weaker than expectations for a 0.2% decline. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, came in flat last month. Analysts were expecting core retail sales to rise 0.2% in October, after rising by an upwardly revised 1.2% in September. Also the Labor Department reported that producer prices fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in October, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase, after rising 1.1% in September. The core producer price index declined 0.2% in October, defying expectations for a 0.1% increase, after coming in September.

Later today the U.S. is to release reports on initial jobless claims, consumer price inflation, crude oil stockpiles and data on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia.

Daily Afternoon Report 14/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The U.S. dollar rallied against the broadly weaker yen on Wednesday, but turned lower against the euro, as speculation that aid payments for Greece could be bundled into one large lump sum supported the single currency.

The euro remained supported after German newspaper Bild reported Tuesday that Greece could receive three bailout installments in one single payment of EUR44 billion, citing German government sources.

The euro hit session highs against the greenback earlier after Italy saw borrowing costs fall to the lowest level since October 2010 at an auction of three-year government bonds. In addition to that, the Italian 10-year government bonds advanced for a second day as borrowing costs fell as the nation sold 5 billion euros ($6.4 billion) of debt. Italy auctioned 3.5 billion euros of notes due in 2015 and a total of 1.5 billion euros of 2023 and 2029 bonds, the latter being the longest maturity the nation has sold this year.

But concerns that the economic outlook for the euro zone is worsening were underlined after official data showed that industrial production in the bloc tumbled 2.5% in September, compared to expectations for a 1.9% decline.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England’s quarterly inflation report said that it will take until the third quarter of 2014 before inflation will fall below the bank’s 2% target, nine months longer than the bank forecast in August and added that growth looked likely to remain sluggish.

As the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said, the U.K. economy may shrink in the current quarter and its recovery will be subdued, prompting officials to keep open the option of further asset purchases to aid growth.

Earlier Wednesday, official data showed that the number of people in the U.K. claiming unemployment benefits rose by 10,100 in October, the largest increase since September 2011, but the unemployment rate ticked down to 7.8% from 7.9% in September.

In the U.S., retail sales fell in October for the first time in four months, influenced by the effects of superstorm Sandy, which hurt receipts for some and helped for others. The 0.3 percent drop followed a 1.3 percent increase in September that was larger than previously reported, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington.

Furthermore, wholesale prices in the U.S. unexpectedly fell in October for the first time in five months as energy and vehicle costs dropped. The 0.2 percent decline in the producer price index came after a 1.1 percent increase the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.

Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.

Daily Morning Report 14/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

  The dollar fell against most major global currencies on Wednesday after expectations that Greece may see bailout money flowing into the country soon. German newspaper Bild reported that Greece could receive EUR44 billion in various financial aid packages. Eurozone policymakers are scheduled to meet again to discuss Greece's finances on 20/11/2012, with a EUR31.5 billion of aid pending approval. Greece placed EUR4.06 billion in short-term government debt earlier, money that will help Athens to repay EUR5 billion in debt maturing on Friday.

  Later Wednesday, the Eurozone will release official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health and the U.S. will unveil data on retail sales, producer price inflation and business inventories, and the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.

Daily Afternoon Report 13/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The U.S. dollar was steady against the other major currencies on Tuesday, as amid ongoing uncertainty over aid payments to Greece and concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff.

The euro came off two-month lows against the greenback after German newspaper Bild reported that Greece could receive EUR44 billion of financial aid in one payment, citing German government sources.

Sentiment on the single currency was also boosted after Greece sold EUR4.06 billion of short term government bonds, which should help Athens to repay EUR5 billion of debts maturing on Friday.

But investors remained jittery amid concerns over a delayed bailout payment for Greece as officials from the International Monetary Fund and Europe disagreed on how best to reduce the country’s debt to manageable levels.

A decision on unlocking Greece’s next tranche of aid, worth EUR31.5 billion, has been postponed until 20 November.

The dollar traded slightly lower against the pound, since the pound found some support after official data showed that U.K. consumer prices rose sharply in October, as a result of increases in the cost of food, transport and university fees.

In other U.S. news, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined by 5.4 points, or 10%, in November, posting 48.6 vs. 54 in October. The index is 0.4 points above its 12-month average of 48.2, 4.2 points above its reading of 44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered into the recession, and 1.3 points below its all-time average of 49.9.

Later on, the U.S. is to release official data on the federal budget balance.

Daily Morning Report 13/11/2012

The dollar rose against most major global currencies on Tuesday Asian session.

Mondays Eurogroup meeting ended with Eurozone finance ministers agreeing to extend Greece’s fiscal adjustment period by two years but deciding to put off until next week final decisions on the disbursement of the next Greek bailout tranche and the method to make the country’s debt sustainable. Once approved, the next shot of financial aid will end shorter-term solvency issues for Greece, but the country and creditors must still agree on ways to lower longer-term debt burdens, which dampened spirits.

The dollar also saw support on growing fears the U.S. risks falling into an avoidable recession in 2013. If untreated, the ‘’fiscal cliff’’ could siphon over USD600 billion out of the U.S. economy next year alone in the form of rising taxes and cuts to government spending.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to release official data on the federal budget balance. In Europe, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research will release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, as well as data on sentiment in the wider Eurozone.