Daily Morning Report 29/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The dollar fell against the major currencies on Thursday. President Obama told the world that “something will be done” to steer the country away from the fiscal cliff, which boosted the euro on sentiment U.S. policymakers will put politics aside and make tough tax and spending reforms needed to avoid the cliff. U.S., the Commerce Department reported earlier that new home sales fell by 0.3% to a seasonally adjusted 368,000 units in October, confounding expectations for an increase to 390,000.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to produce revised data on third quarter gross domestic product, as well as data on pending home sales and initial jobless claims.

Daily Morning Report 28/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

 In Asian trading on Wednesday dollar traded mixed to lower against the world's major global currencies on growing fears regarding actions US policymakers need to take to steer the American economy away of the ‘’fiscal cliff’’ as time is running out. EURUSD was down on fears that despite a recent deal that will free up aid to Greece, the broader European debt crisis won't abate anytime soon. Many investors seeking safe haven opted for the yen.

Yesterday Conference Board, a market research group, reported that its index of consumer confidence rose to 73.7 in November from a reading of 73.1 in October, whose figure was revised up from 72.2. In other announcement the U.S. Census Bureau reported that core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.5% in October. Total orders for durable goods were unchanged last month compared to expectations for a 0.6% decline. Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index rose at an annualized rate of 3.0% in September from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 2.9% increase.

Later, the US is to release official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as government data on crude oil inventories. Also the Fed is to publish its Beige Book.

Daily Afternoon Report 22/11/2012

  The euro was trading close to a three-week high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as improved manufacturing data from China and the euro zone and hopes for a deal on an aid payment for Greece supported demand for the single currency.

  After the data of German Flash Manufacturing PMI were released the single currency found support. Germany’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 46.8 in November, up from 46.0 in October and better than forecasts for a reading of 45.9. Germany’s services PMI came in at 48.0, below expectations for a reading of 48.5. The euro zone’s manufacturing PMI rose to 46.2 this month from 45.4 in October, above expectations for a reading of 45.6. The euro zone’s services PMI declined to 45.7, from 46.0 in October, compared to expectations for a reading of 46.1.

  The euro was also supported after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said an agreement to unlock a delayed bailout installment for Greece was still possible when euro zone finance ministers resume talks on Monday. Today Spain successful auctioned EUR3.38 billion of three and five-year bonds at lower yields than previously, easing pressure on Madrid to seek a bailout.

The data came after a report earlier showed that China’s preliminary HSBC manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in November, up from a final reading of 49.5 in October. The data eased concerns over a slowdown in the world’s largest economy.

  Trade volumes are expected to remain low on Thursday, with US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Daily Afternoon Report 20/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

After another rally spiking to 1.2830 as the NY session opened, the EURUSD eased back to the 1.2800 psychological level. Fed's Lacker is in favour that the US Congress limits the central bank's credit policy and is against linking the policy to the unemployment rate. Also, Reuters reported that Italy may veto the EU budget if it goes against the country’s interests. The pair is currently trading sideways at 1.2800 after the release of weaker US building permits and better than expected housing starts.

Later Bernanke (FED) will speak and might 

Daily Morning Report 20/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The dollar strengthened against the world's major global currencies on Tuesday after Moody's stripped France of its triple-A rating, which wiped out appetite for risk.

Moody's Investors Service earlier said it had cut French sovereign ratings to Aaa1 from Aaa, which sent investors ditching the EUR/USD and commodities to digest the news, which made the dollar the perfect safe haven.

As Moody’s published earlier, “France's long-term economic growth outlook is negatively affected by multiple structural challenges, including its gradual, sustained loss of competitiveness and the long-standing rigidities of its labour, goods and service markets.” Furthermore,  “France's fiscal outlook is uncertain as a result of its deteriorating economic prospects, both in the short term due to subdued domestic and external demand, and in the longer term due to the structural rigidities noted above.”

The market kept an eye on the Bank of Japan, which was holding a monetary policy meeting later Tuesday.

The Bank of Japan may hold benchmark interest rates unchanged, though upcoming elections could see opposition leader Shinzo Abe become the next Prime Minister. Abe has called for more aggressive policy action and stimulus from the Bank of Japan.

In other news, foreign direct investment in China fell for the 11th time in 12 months as labour costs rose, a slowdown threatened to drag growth to a 13-year low and a territorial dispute with Japan weighed on trade.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to publish official data on building permits as well as data on housing starts, while, the U.S. Fed Chairman is due to deliver a speech titled "The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy" at the Economic Club of New York. Finally today, the Eurozone of finance ministers will hold talks in Brussels to discuss financial issues in the bloc.

Daily Afternoon Report 19/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

  The U.S. dollar was lower against the other major currencies on Monday, as optimism over signs of progress in resolving the U.S. fiscal cliff and hopes that Greece will soon receive its next aid installment dampened demand for the greenback. Traders were looking ahead of a meeting of the eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers on Tuesday to discuss whether Greece will receive its next tranche of financial aid. A decision on unlocking Greece’s next bailout aid has been delayed by disagreements between officials from the International Monetary Fund and Europe on how best to reduce the country’s debt to manageable levels. Concerns over the economic outlook for the euro zone persisted after Germany's central bank warned earlier that economic growth in the bloc’s largest economy is weakening as a result of the crisis in the region, as well as problems in the global economy.

  On Monday, the National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales rose by 2.1% to a seasonally adjusted 4.79 million units in October from September’s revised total of 4.69 million. September existing home sales were initially reported at 4.75 million units. Analysts had expected U.S. existing home sales to rise to 4.75 million units in October.

Daily Afternoon Report 15/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The U.S. dollar trimmed losses against the other major currencies on Thursday, after official data showed the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week surged to the highest level since April 2011.

As the U.S. Department of Labor said, the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending November 10 rose by 78,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000, compared to expectations for an increase of 14,000 to 375,000.

Whereas, the euro held gains against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, after the release of mixed U.S. economic data, although concerns over the euro zone debt crisis and U.S. fiscal policy remained.

In the euro zone, official data released earlier showed that the region’s economy shrank 0.1% in the third quarter, following a contraction of 0.2% in the preceding quarter.

Year-on-year, euro zone gross domestic product fell 0.6% compared to a year earlier after contracting at a rate of 0.5% in the previous quarter.

Data also showed that Spain's economy contracted by 0.3%, while Italy’s economy shrank 0.2% in the third quarter.

Furthermore, concerns over the health of triple-AAA Austria and the Netherlands intensified after data showed Austria’s economy shrank 0.1% in the three months to September, while the Dutch economy contracted by an alarming 1.1%. Economists had only expected a decline of 0.2%.

A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in the euro zone held steady at 2.5% in October, unchanged from an initial estimate and in line with expectations.

Core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs held steady at 1.5%, unchanged from a preliminary estimate and matching forecasts.

In other news, the pound came under pressure after official data showed that retail sales in the U.K. fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in October, compared to expectations for a 0.1% fall.

The yen also came under selling pressure after Shinzo Abe, the head of Japan's main opposition party and frontrunner in next month's election, called for aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan to support growth.

In latest news, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index decreased to minus 10.7 in November from 5.7 a month earlier. A reading of zero is the dividing line between expansion and contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

Later in the day, the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Daily Afternoon Report 12/11/2012

The U.S. dollar was trading in tight ranges against the other major currencies on Monday, ahead of a meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels to discuss whether to release Greece’s next tranche of financial aid.

During European afternoon trade, the dollar eased back from a two-month high against the euro, since the euro found support after Greece’s government approved a budget of spending cuts and tax increases for 2013 late Sunday, just days after the parliament narrowly approved a EUR13.5 billion austerity package required to secure the country’s next installment of financial aid.

The eurogroup of finance ministers was to hold talks in Brussels later Monday, but no decision was expected to be taken ahead of an economic progress report from the troika. Speaking in Brussels ahead of the meeting, Mr. Juncker said he doesn't expect any "definitive" decisions on Greece on Monday, but he said Greece is in the process of meeting its commitments and he hopes the next tranche of financial aid will be agreed "as soon as possible."

Without the next aid installment, Greece risks default on November 16, when Athens must repay EUR5 billion of debts.

In other news, general strikes were called in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy on November 14^th.

Meanwhile, ongoing concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff continued to underpin demand for the dollar.

The dollar was little changed against the yen earlier in the session after official data showed that Japan’s economy contracted by 3.5% in the third quarter compared to a year earlier as exports, consumption and business investment tumbled.

The report was offset by official data from China over the weekend showing that exports increased by 11.6% from a year earlier in October, while the trade surplus widened to the largest in almost four years.

In Australia, official data showed that home loan demand rose less-than-expected in September, increasing 0.9% slightly below expectations for a 1.0% rise.

Later Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was to travel to Lisbon to hold talks with Portuguese political leaders, amid public opposition to the country’s austerity cuts.

Daily Morning Report 12/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

  The dollar fell against most major global currencies on Monday amid growing concerns regarding the US ‘’fiscal cliff’’ that could send the country into a recession next year. At the end of this year, tax breaks are set to expire and at the same time cuts to government spending are scheduled.

  In Europe Greek parliament approved a budget for next year, days after approving EUR13.5 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes needed to appease creditors. European and multilateral creditors required a new budget in order for Athens to tap fresh bailout money. European finance ministers are due to meet later in Brussels on Monday, though they may spend time reviewing Greece's commitment to austerity. Market participants, however, are not expecting European Union officials to disburse immediately the EUR31.5 billion fresh rescue funding to Greece.

  In Japan, official data revealed the economy contracted by annualized 3.5% in the third quarter of this year, which weakened the yen against the USD.

  Markets in the U.S. and Canada will be closed on Monday for national holidays.