Daily Morning Report 28/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

 In Asian trading on Wednesday dollar traded mixed to lower against the world's major global currencies on growing fears regarding actions US policymakers need to take to steer the American economy away of the ‘’fiscal cliff’’ as time is running out. EURUSD was down on fears that despite a recent deal that will free up aid to Greece, the broader European debt crisis won't abate anytime soon. Many investors seeking safe haven opted for the yen.

Yesterday Conference Board, a market research group, reported that its index of consumer confidence rose to 73.7 in November from a reading of 73.1 in October, whose figure was revised up from 72.2. In other announcement the U.S. Census Bureau reported that core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation items, rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.5% in October. Total orders for durable goods were unchanged last month compared to expectations for a 0.6% decline. Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index rose at an annualized rate of 3.0% in September from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 2.9% increase.

Later, the US is to release official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health, as well as government data on crude oil inventories. Also the Fed is to publish its Beige Book.

Daily Morning Report 27/11/2012

 The dollar weakened against the world's major global currencies on Tuesday after IMF and EU policymakers agreed to reduce Greece's debt-reduction target by EUR40 billion to 124% of gross domestic product by 2020, an accord needed by IMF to free up aid. Greece will cut debt burdens down further to 110% by 2022, while EU and IMF policymakers agreed to trim interest rates on Greek loans, extend their maturity by 15-30 years, and grant the country a 10-year interest repayment deferral. Greece is set to avoid default.

 In Spain’s Catalonia region separatist parties won the majority of the public vote in elections held over the weekend, which tempered the euro's rally. Catalonia accounts for nearly a fifth of Spain's economic activity and provides the most tax revenue to the central government.

 Later US are to release official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as industry data on house price inflation. US consumer confidence data will also be published and FED chairman is to deliver brief remarks at the National College Fed Challenge Finals, in Washington DC.

Daily Afternoon Report 22/11/2012

  The euro was trading close to a three-week high against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, as improved manufacturing data from China and the euro zone and hopes for a deal on an aid payment for Greece supported demand for the single currency.

  After the data of German Flash Manufacturing PMI were released the single currency found support. Germany’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 46.8 in November, up from 46.0 in October and better than forecasts for a reading of 45.9. Germany’s services PMI came in at 48.0, below expectations for a reading of 48.5. The euro zone’s manufacturing PMI rose to 46.2 this month from 45.4 in October, above expectations for a reading of 45.6. The euro zone’s services PMI declined to 45.7, from 46.0 in October, compared to expectations for a reading of 46.1.

  The euro was also supported after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said an agreement to unlock a delayed bailout installment for Greece was still possible when euro zone finance ministers resume talks on Monday. Today Spain successful auctioned EUR3.38 billion of three and five-year bonds at lower yields than previously, easing pressure on Madrid to seek a bailout.

The data came after a report earlier showed that China’s preliminary HSBC manufacturing PMI rose to 50.4 in November, up from a final reading of 49.5 in October. The data eased concerns over a slowdown in the world’s largest economy.

  Trade volumes are expected to remain low on Thursday, with US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday.

Daily Morning Report 22/11/2012 | Forex Trading

In latest news, the China HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index hit 50.4 for November, a 13-month high and up from a final October reading of 49.5. As a result, the dollar was sent dipping as investors sold the unit to invest in stocks and higher-yielding asset classes. Renewed hopes that Greece will soon tap bailout funds sent the U.S. Dollar falling as well.

In Brussels, Eurozone finance ministers and representatives from the International Monetary Fund failed to agree to disburse aid to Greece earlier this week. European governments support giving Greece a two-year extension to trim the country's debt burdens to 120% of GDP, though the IMF did not agree.

Meanwhile, the IMF opposed the two-year extension and says policymakers should stick with plans for Greece to bring debt burdens down to 120% by 2020 — and not 2022 — but has said European countries should take a hit on Greek loans, which has run into opposition in Europe.

Still, the euro gained on hopes that all sides will strike a deal at a follow-up meeting on Monday and free EUR31.5 billion earmarked for the crisis-ridden country.

Later Thursday, European Union leaders will hold the first day of a two-day summit in Brussels to discuss the debt crisis and plans for greater fiscal and monetary integration across the region, while, the Eurozone is to release preliminary data on manufacturing and service-sector activity, leading indicators of economic strength. Germany and France are also to release individual reports.

U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holidays.

Daily Morning Report 20/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The dollar strengthened against the world's major global currencies on Tuesday after Moody's stripped France of its triple-A rating, which wiped out appetite for risk.

Moody's Investors Service earlier said it had cut French sovereign ratings to Aaa1 from Aaa, which sent investors ditching the EUR/USD and commodities to digest the news, which made the dollar the perfect safe haven.

As Moody’s published earlier, “France's long-term economic growth outlook is negatively affected by multiple structural challenges, including its gradual, sustained loss of competitiveness and the long-standing rigidities of its labour, goods and service markets.” Furthermore,  “France's fiscal outlook is uncertain as a result of its deteriorating economic prospects, both in the short term due to subdued domestic and external demand, and in the longer term due to the structural rigidities noted above.”

The market kept an eye on the Bank of Japan, which was holding a monetary policy meeting later Tuesday.

The Bank of Japan may hold benchmark interest rates unchanged, though upcoming elections could see opposition leader Shinzo Abe become the next Prime Minister. Abe has called for more aggressive policy action and stimulus from the Bank of Japan.

In other news, foreign direct investment in China fell for the 11th time in 12 months as labour costs rose, a slowdown threatened to drag growth to a 13-year low and a territorial dispute with Japan weighed on trade.

Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to publish official data on building permits as well as data on housing starts, while, the U.S. Fed Chairman is due to deliver a speech titled "The Economic Recovery and Economic Policy" at the Economic Club of New York. Finally today, the Eurozone of finance ministers will hold talks in Brussels to discuss financial issues in the bloc.

Daily Afternoon Report 19/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

  The U.S. dollar was lower against the other major currencies on Monday, as optimism over signs of progress in resolving the U.S. fiscal cliff and hopes that Greece will soon receive its next aid installment dampened demand for the greenback. Traders were looking ahead of a meeting of the eurogroup of euro zone finance ministers on Tuesday to discuss whether Greece will receive its next tranche of financial aid. A decision on unlocking Greece’s next bailout aid has been delayed by disagreements between officials from the International Monetary Fund and Europe on how best to reduce the country’s debt to manageable levels. Concerns over the economic outlook for the euro zone persisted after Germany's central bank warned earlier that economic growth in the bloc’s largest economy is weakening as a result of the crisis in the region, as well as problems in the global economy.

  On Monday, the National Association of Realtors said that U.S. existing home sales rose by 2.1% to a seasonally adjusted 4.79 million units in October from September’s revised total of 4.69 million. September existing home sales were initially reported at 4.75 million units. Analysts had expected U.S. existing home sales to rise to 4.75 million units in October.

Daily Afternoon Report 16/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The U.S. dollar was broadly higher against the other major currencies on Friday, as markets were jittery ahead of highly anticipated talks between U.S. President Barack Obama and Republican lawmakers on how to tackle the "fiscal cliff", while euro zone debt concerns remained.

The EUR/USD came under pressure after the European Central Bank said in a report that the euro zone's current account surplus narrowed more-than-expected in August, declining to EUR0.8 billion from an upwardly revised EUR10.9 billion the previous month,

Earlier this morning, Bundesbank’s Weidmann said that a banking union itself can be stabilizing, yet a banking union as a solution to the crisis is wrong. Weidmann also cautioned against an over-hasty banking union.

Also this morning, Swiss National Bank’s Thomas Jordan said that the central bank will continue to apply the Franc ceiling, as a stronger currency hurts the local Swiss economy. He also said that the SNB’s FX reserves expose the bank to substantial FX risk.

Meanwhile, investors remained concerned over the looming "fiscal cliff" in the U.S., approximately USD600 billion in automatic tax hikes and spending cuts due to come into effect on January 1.

There are fears the U.S. economy will fall back into a recession, unless a divided Congress and the White House can work out a compromise before then.

In latest news, the industrial production in the U.S. has declined in October as superstorm Sandy knocked out power in the Northeast. Output at factories, mines and utilities dropped 0.4 percent last month after a revised 0.2 percent increase in September that was smaller than previously estimated, Federal Reserve data showed today in Washington.

Furthermore, foreign investment in Canadian securities advanced to $13.9 billion in September on the strength of purchases of government bonds and corporate equities. Canadian investment in foreign securities reached a six-month high of $6.0 billion, led by the acquisition of US equities. Foreign investment in Canadian debt securities focuses on government bonds Foreign investors acquired $10.6 billion of Canadian debt securities in September, the largest such investment since May.

Daily Afternoon Report 15/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The U.S. dollar trimmed losses against the other major currencies on Thursday, after official data showed the number of people who filed for unemployment assistance in the U.S. last week surged to the highest level since April 2011.

As the U.S. Department of Labor said, the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending November 10 rose by 78,000 to a seasonally adjusted 439,000, compared to expectations for an increase of 14,000 to 375,000.

Whereas, the euro held gains against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, after the release of mixed U.S. economic data, although concerns over the euro zone debt crisis and U.S. fiscal policy remained.

In the euro zone, official data released earlier showed that the region’s economy shrank 0.1% in the third quarter, following a contraction of 0.2% in the preceding quarter.

Year-on-year, euro zone gross domestic product fell 0.6% compared to a year earlier after contracting at a rate of 0.5% in the previous quarter.

Data also showed that Spain's economy contracted by 0.3%, while Italy’s economy shrank 0.2% in the third quarter.

Furthermore, concerns over the health of triple-AAA Austria and the Netherlands intensified after data showed Austria’s economy shrank 0.1% in the three months to September, while the Dutch economy contracted by an alarming 1.1%. Economists had only expected a decline of 0.2%.

A separate report showed that consumer price inflation in the euro zone held steady at 2.5% in October, unchanged from an initial estimate and in line with expectations.

Core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs held steady at 1.5%, unchanged from a preliminary estimate and matching forecasts.

In other news, the pound came under pressure after official data showed that retail sales in the U.K. fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.8% in October, compared to expectations for a 0.1% fall.

The yen also came under selling pressure after Shinzo Abe, the head of Japan's main opposition party and frontrunner in next month's election, called for aggressive monetary easing by the Bank of Japan to support growth.

In latest news, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s general economic index decreased to minus 10.7 in November from 5.7 a month earlier. A reading of zero is the dividing line between expansion and contraction in the area covering eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware.

Later in the day, the speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is to be closely watched for any indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy.

Daily Morning Report 15/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

In Asian trading on Thursday US dollar fell against the major currencies on weak data release earlier on Europe and the US.

In the eurozone data revealed that industrial production declined 2.5% in September, well beyond expectations for a more modest 1.9% decline. This sparked fears that the eurozone's preliminary gross domestic product rate for the third quarter will disappoint later Thursday. France, Germany and Italy are also to release individual GDP reports.

In the US, Commerce Department reported earlier that retail sales fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in October, weaker than expectations for a 0.2% decline. Core retail sales, which exclude automobile sales, came in flat last month. Analysts were expecting core retail sales to rise 0.2% in October, after rising by an upwardly revised 1.2% in September. Also the Labor Department reported that producer prices fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.2% in October, compared to expectations for a 0.2% increase, after rising 1.1% in September. The core producer price index declined 0.2% in October, defying expectations for a 0.1% increase, after coming in September.

Later today the U.S. is to release reports on initial jobless claims, consumer price inflation, crude oil stockpiles and data on manufacturing activity in New York and Philadelphia.

Daily Afternoon Report 30/10/2012

Subsequent to a meeting in Berlin, France Finance Minister Moscovici and http://jobsmoney.blogspot.com/Minister Schaeuble declared that they are aiming for a solution to Greece by November. They both want to see Greece remains in the Euro-zone, and the solution will be discussed more in tomorrow’s Euro-group meeting. Schaeuble refused to comment on the size of the funding gap in Greece, but added that they can’t go in the opposite direction on debt reduction. Moscovici said he doesn’t want to reopen the discussion on Euro bonds.

The amount of people out of work in Germany now totals 2.94 million. The German economy has suffered because of the Euro debt crisis, and the GDP only rose 0.3% in the second quarter. Germany is the largest economy in the Euro and signs of economic suffering are Euro negative in forex markets.

Clearly, the largest story of the day is Hurricane Sandy and its impact on the East Coast of the US. It is appraised that the damages are coming up to 20 billion dollars from the hurricane and US stock markets will remain closed today, the US markets might reopen tomorrow.  

Daily Afternoon Report 29/10/2012

UK mortgage approvals rose for the fourth straight month in September, possibly signalling the success of the BoE’s funding for lending scheme. Home loans were up to 50,024 in September, beating expectations for 48,700, and higher than August’s revised 47,921 mortgages.  

Net consumer credit was 1.2 billion Pounds in September, according to the Bank of England. Earlier today, housing prices were reported to have fallen 0.1% in the UK according to the Hometrack Housing Survey.

As Spain is expected to contract for the fifth consecutive quarter, the heightening threat for a prolonged recession will continue to dampen the appeal of the Euro, and the European Central Bank might come under additional pressure to expand monetary policy further as the governments functioning under the single-currency become increasingly dependent on monetary support.

The ECB may have little choice but to push the benchmark interest rate further to a fresh record-low amid the weakening outlook for growth and inflation, and we may see the Governing Council carry its easing cycle into the following year as European policy makers struggle to stem the threat for contagion. The EURUSD slipped as an 11% drop in Spanish retail sales dampened the outlook for the euro-area, and the single currency may face additional headwinds.

Daily Afternoon Report 26/10/2012

Earlier in the day, official data showed that Tokyo's core consumer price inflation, which excludes fell by 0.4% in October, less than the expected 0.5% decline, following after a 0.4% fall the previous month.

In the U.S., real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2012, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.  The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, non-residential fixed investment, and private inventory investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

In addition to that, the dollar index rose to its highest in 1-1/2 months on Friday, helped by the U.S. currency gains against the euro as fresh worries about Greece weighed on the single currency.

Elsewhere, a preliminary report by the IMF showed on Thursday that the Greek debt will be above the target of 120 percent of GDP in 2020, hence Athens will need more reforms before emergency credit from international lenders can start flowing again.

A separate report showed that Spain's unemployment rate rose to 25.0% in the second quarter, from a rate of 24.6% the previous quarter, barely beating expectations for a rise to 25.1%.

Daily Morning Report 26/10/2012

In Europe, the IMF dropped the Irish GDP forecast to 1.1% and the Bundesbank points to downside risks of the 1.8% growth forecast in Germany. The Euro has extended its weakening against the US Dollar after the US closing bell in the back of news from APPL missing dividends estimates and news from Europe on Greece needs an additional €30 billion thru 2016.

The Aussie dollar started a rally early Wednesday morning that instigated with the surprise showing from 3Q CPI figures. The 2.0 per cent pace it does remove some pressure for aggressive cuts.

The Chinese PMI figures which printed better than expected but were 12 months into a reductionary phase. The UK Q3 GDP came much stronger-than-expected at 1% versus 0.6%.

 AUD/JPY is set to print gains for a third straight week, with traders observing for the Bank of Japan to increase its current 90 trillion Yen QE program by another 10 trillion Yen next week, according to the latest Japanese press reports.

Daily Afternoon Report 25/10/2012

Earlier Thursday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.5%, marking Governor Graeme Wheeler's first decision as head of the central bank, after replacing Alan Bollard in late September.

The preliminary release of the UK Q3 GDP came in much stronger than expected causing EUR/GBP to plunge, while GBP/USD rose.

The euro extended its correction versus the dollar after the jobless claims drop as well as the durable goods orders rise to more than expected levels.

Elsewhere, the yen remained broadly weaker amid mounting speculation over the possibility of more easing by the BoJ at its upcoming policy meeting on October 30.