US ADP

Private sector employment increased by 118,000 jobs from October to November, according to the November ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Jobs! Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The October 2012 report, which reported job gains of 158,000, was revised down by 1,000 to 157,000 jobs.

Daily Afternoon Report 29/10/2012

UK mortgage approvals rose for the fourth straight month in September, possibly signalling the success of the BoE’s funding for lending scheme. Home loans were up to 50,024 in September, beating expectations for 48,700, and higher than August’s revised 47,921 mortgages.  

Net consumer credit was 1.2 billion Pounds in September, according to the Bank of England. Earlier today, housing prices were reported to have fallen 0.1% in the UK according to the Hometrack Housing Survey.

As Spain is expected to contract for the fifth consecutive quarter, the heightening threat for a prolonged recession will continue to dampen the appeal of the Euro, and the European Central Bank might come under additional pressure to expand monetary policy further as the governments functioning under the single-currency become increasingly dependent on monetary support.

The ECB may have little choice but to push the benchmark interest rate further to a fresh record-low amid the weakening outlook for growth and inflation, and we may see the Governing Council carry its easing cycle into the following year as European policy makers struggle to stem the threat for contagion. The EURUSD slipped as an 11% drop in Spanish retail sales dampened the outlook for the euro-area, and the single currency may face additional headwinds.

Daily Morning Report 29/10/2012

The dollar traded higher against most major currencies on Monday, as investors snapped up safe-haven USD positions to brace for U.S. unemployment data due out later this week as well as the Bank of Japan's latest decision on interest rates.

The USD was up against the GBP, CAD, NZD, AUD, JPY and CHF in Asian session.

 Fears Greece may run into hurdles securing its next tranche of bailout money sparked the risk-off session as well.

Japan, meanwhile, is to release data on unemployment, household spending and industrial production this week, though investors were keeping a close eye on the Bank of Japan, which will announce its latest decision with interest rates and monetary policy on Tuesday.

Later Monday, the U.S. government plans to issue data on personal income and spending for September on Monday even though the government has shut down to brace for Hurricane Sandy. The Federal Reserve, however, will postpone its regularly scheduled data. The Commerce Department will post the monthly report on consumer spending on its web site at 1230 GMT, as regularly scheduled. In contrast, the Fed said it would wait until the federal government reopens to release its data, including a weekly report on selected interest rates and figures on commercial paper issuance.

Daily Morning Report 25/10/2012

The Great Britain pound advanced on hopes that the United Kingdom will emerge from recession. Traders turned their attention to the GDP report, released today, which is expected to show growth of 0.6% in the Q3. BoE Governor Mervyn King appears to be softening the tone on monetary policy.

German and French manufacturing data disappointed markets with PMI reporting under forecast, followed by a slew of other German data all under forecast and the EU manufacturing PMI also under forecast.  Reports are surfacing that officials from the European Union, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund rejected Germany’s proposal to tighten Greece’s access to the established financial aid account. With this proposal out of the way, the market is pricing in the possibility that Greece will eventually get its next tranche of aid. 

Canadian Dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart boosted by a hawkish statement from the Bank of Canada on Tuesday that stands in stark contrast to most other developed economies. The central bank was expected to set the currency’s direction for a second straight session, with Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney holding a news conference following the release of its Monetary Policy Report later on Wednesday.

US new Home Sales surprised markets with a strong upward report coming in above forecast at 389k against 385k supporting a US recovery

Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates At 20:50 EST / 0050 GMT

                           Latest       Previous   %Chg    Daily    Daily   %Chg 
Dollar Rates                               Close            High      Low  12/31 
 
 
USD/JPY Japan            79.64-68       79.61-65  +0.04    79.75    79.58  +3.57 
EUR/USD Euro            1.2539-42      1.2559-63  -0.16   1.2575   1.2530  -3.24 
GBP/USD U.K.            1.5509-14      1.5525-31  -0.11   1.5536   1.5500  -0.20 
USD/CHF Switzerland     0.9574-78      0.9559-64  +0.15   0.9585   0.9552  +2.17 
USD/CAD Canada          1.0293-98      1.0276-81  +0.17   1.0300   1.0240  +0.84 
AUD/USD Australia       0.9870-74      0.9895-98  -0.24   0.9917   0.9858  -3.29 
NZD/USD New Zealand     0.7656-58      0.7669-74  -0.19   0.7688   0.7646  -1.53 
 
Euro Rates 
 
EUR/JPY Japan            99.87-92      99.99-100  -0.12   100.26    99.74  +0.34 
EUR/GBP U.K.            0.8085-88      0.8088-91  -0.04   0.8097   0.8082  -4.38 
EUR/CHF Switzerland     1.2008-12      1.2008-13   0.00   1.2011   1.2010  -1.33 
EUR/CAD Canada          1.2906-14      1.2906-15  -0.01   1.2918   1.2868  -2.43 
EUR/AUD Australia       1.2701-08      1.2689-96  +0.09   1.2713   1.2676  +0.07 
EUR/DKK Denmark         7.4320-58      7.4317-57  +0.00   7.4388   7.4314  -0.02 
EUR/NOK Norway        7.5969-6044     7.5890-988  +0.09   7.6035   7.5868  -1.87 
EUR/SEK Sweden          8.9704-74     8.9688-832  -0.02   8.9868   8.9610  +0.64 
EUR/CZK Czech Rep.     25.259-304      25.313-71  -0.24   25.352   25.292  -1.23 
EUR/HUF Hungary       295.70-6.38    294.88-5.67  +0.26   296.00   295.38  -6.05 
EUR/PLN Poland         4.2666-724     4.2637-716  +0.04   4.2693   4.2642  -4.43 
 
Yen Rates 
 
AUD/JPY Australia        78.60-66       78.77-83  -0.22    79.08    78.50  +0.52 
GBP/JPY U.K.            123.51-62      123.59-68  -0.06   123.82   123.38  +3.36 
CAD/JPY Canada           77.34-41       77.43-50  -0.12    77.82    77.28  +2.71 
NZD/JPY New Zealand    60.97-1.02       61.05-12  -0.15    61.31    60.87  +1.98 
 
Other Dollar Rates 
 
USD/CZK Czech Rep.      20.142-76      20.153-97  -0.08   20.171   20.140  +2.06 
USD/HUF Hungary       235.81-6.32    234.78-5.37  +0.42   236.13   235.16  -2.91 
USD/DKK Denmark         5.9265-86      5.9171-93  +0.16   5.9327   5.9118  +3.32 
USD/NOK Norway         6.0581-632      6.0423-90  +0.25   6.0677   6.0376  +1.41 
USD/PLZ Poland          3.4023-64    3.3947-4005  +0.20   3.4059   3.3930  -1.24 
USD/RUB Russia          32.409-60     32.352-424  +0.14   32.472   32.282  +0.88 
USD/SEK Sweden          7.1533-78     7.1407-512  +0.13   7.1579   7.1328  +4.01 
USD/ZAR S. Africa      8.3868-994     8.3688-832  +0.20   8.4149   8.3768  +3.78 
 
USD/CNY China          6.3693-714      6.3671-92  +0.03   6.3693   6.3690  +0.81 
USD/HKD Hong Kong       7.7580-86      7.7579-85  +0.00   7.7584   7.7580  -0.11 
USD/MYR Malaysia       3.1685-786     3.1575-640  +0.40   3.1750   3.1620  -0.12 
USD/INR India           54.938-53      54.958-73  -0.04   54.958   54.900  +3.62 
USD/IDR Indonesia        9355-405        9340-99  +0.11     9400     9405  +3.84 
USD/PHP Philippines    43.075-276     43.033-272  +0.05   43.075   43.150  -1.54 
USD/SGD Singapore       1.2789-92      1.2770-75  +0.14   1.2805   1.2764  -1.35 
USD/KRW S. Korea     1170.29-2.70   1163.59-6.00  +0.58  1171.39  1165.60  +0.94 
USD/TWD Taiwan         29.799-860     29.779-840  +0.07   29.819   29.860  -1.44 
USD/THB Thailand        31.738-94      31.634-90  +0.33   31.765   31.528  +0.53 
USD/VND Vietnam        20740-1387     20965-1050  +0.27    20740    21387  +0.12 
 
USD/BRR Brazil         2.0295-360      2.0349-80  -0.18   2.0351   2.0348  +8.96 
USD/MXN Mexico        14.0693-862    14.0637-727  +0.07  14.0814  14.0626  +0.94 
USD/ARS Argentina      4.4792-864     4.4792-864   0.00   4.4812   4.4856  +4.04 
 
Source: ICAP Plc. 
 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 07, 2012 20:50 ET (00:50 GMT)

Daily Forex Brief London: Thursday 24th May 2012

Europe's impossible dream

Probably not by accident, yesterday's Brussels dinner party of EU leaders ended too late for the European press to pass judgement. There was a weight of expectations, which was largely misplaced given this was an informal meeting to pave the way for the main summit of leaders at the end of next month. The same differences remain on common bonds and the financial transaction tax (UK opposing) and more subtle differences on the growth agenda. Of course, everyone would like more growth but delivering it alongside a program of continued austerity is naturally a different matter and, for now, it remains the impossible dream for European leaders and a balance which Europe (and indeed others) has yet to achieve. In the FX markets, after the push lower through the 1.26 level into the European close yesterday, EUR/USD has held steady overnight, but activity elsewhere shows that dollar-dominance remains the underlying theme.

Daily Forex Brief London: Friday 11th May 2012

More dark clouds over Spain

The week is ending in a similar fashion to which it began, namely with markets broadly in retreat from risk. There's little reason to feel that today will be much different. The focus is on Spain and its expected announcement of just how bad the government believes the bad loans situation is for the banking sector there. Meanwhile, Greece is still trying to stitch together a government from the results of the weekend's election. But the verdict in markets for the week as a whole has been a distinct lack of belief in the course that is being taken in Europe, with regards to France and its intended push for growth, together with Greece and its appetite for continued austerity as well as Spain's banking situation. Overnight, we've also seen slightly softer than expected retail sales and production data in China, although inflation was broadly as expected at 3.4%.

Daily Forex Brief London: Tuesday 1st May 2012

RBA boldness should be applauded

Last night's decision by the RBA to lower the cash rate by 50bp to 3.75% ought to be applauded. Faced with an economy which, outside the mining sector, is in recession and with inflation likely to be lower than expected, policy-makers rightly decided that financial conditions needed to be loosened considerably. Australia's central bank would also be concerned by the continued decline in property prices – according to the ABS, established house prices fell by a further 1.1% in the first quarter, the fifth consecutive quarterly decline. More rate cuts are likely to be in the pipeline, judging by the level of term interest rates and the shape of the yield curve. For shorter-term maturities, yields fell by as much as 20bp overnight with the 2yr yield now just 2.8%! Both 5yr and 10yr bond yields fell to record lows. The RBA will also be pleased by the response of the currency, with the Aussie down 1% to just above 1.03. Last night's sudden drop aside, it is worth recognising that the AUD's recent performance has actually been remarkably resilient considering the significant narrowing in interest rate differentials. As we were suggesting yesterday, the key driver for the currency is invariably global risk appetite rather than domestic fundamentals.

Daily Forex Brief London: Monday 30th April 2012

The dollar's gentle descent

It has been exceedingly gradual, but the dollar has been drifting downwards over the past two weeks. Not that we are talking about a big move mind you – the dollar index is down by roughly 1.5% over that time. That said, some of the major dollar crosses are at levels not witnessed for some time – cable for instance reached a 7mth high at just under 1.63 overnight. Indeed, the pound has been something of a revelation so far this year, despite the fact that the economy is apparently back in recession. Clearly sterling is attracting flows from a number of different sources. Just imagine how well the currency might be doing if the economy was actually registering the kind of growth that America is experiencing. The Japanese yen is also faring quite well, after a torrid period in February and the first half of March. Even the beleaguered Aussie has perked up, despite mounting speculation that the RBA will cut rates by 50bp by mid-year. All things considered, it has been an indifferent first four months of the year for the dollar, which is slightly surprising as the economy looks better than most, corporate earnings are healthy and the Fed has backed away from implementing further QE after Operation Twist finishes next month. Part of the explanation is that there has been a slight improvement in risk appetite recently. For now, some of the high-beta currencies such as the Kiwi and the ZAR are attracting interest, while sterling retains a very healthy bid.

Daily Forex Brief London: Monday 23rd April 2012

Cautious pessimism

During April, markets have displayed a far more cautious tone to that seen through most of the first quarter. FX markets were earlier than most to adopt this tone, with high-beta currencies turning at the start of March, much earlier than most equity markets. As we enter the last full week of April, this approach seems set to continue. The first round of voting in the French presidential election campaign has strengthened the view that Sarkozy is unlikely to see a second terms and markets are slightly nervous regarding his likely successor, Francois Hollande. The US Federal Reserve also meets this week, but all the signs are that it is unlikely to satisfy those hoping for a fresh round of quantitative easing, despite the ongoing underlying weakness of the economy. Furthermore, the latest PMI data from China (HSBC manufacturing series) increased to 49.1 (from 48.3), keeping alive concerns about the extent of the slowdown currently being seen in China. Finally, the latest producer price inflation data in Australia appear to have further cemented the case for a fresh rate cut next month. Cautious pessimism is likely to remain the theme as we head into month end.

Daily Forex Brief London: Thursday 19th April 2012

A lovely shiny pound

Of the major currencies it has been the proud pound that has been leading the way so far this year. Following yesterday's less dovish MPC Minutes and the surprisingly strong employment figures, cable is back through 1.60 once more and EUR/GBP is at a 20mth low of 0.8180. Against the Japanese yen the pound has advanced by almost 10% so far this year. Numerous explanations account for this more buoyant performance: the pound is very competitive, many sovereign wealth funds and high net worth individuals are still spooked by the euro (see below) and regard UK assets (such as London property and gilts) as safe-havens, and the economy appears to have avoided falling back into recession. In addition, other major currencies such as the Japanese yen, the Australian dollar and the Swiss franc are regarded as being very expensive, so it is little wonder that sterling is on the radar of money managers. Looking ahead, these sources of demand are likely to remain evident for some time to come. The message for a while now has been 'do not underestimate the pound'.

Also in today's Daily Forex Brief:

• UK QE loses its biggest sponsor
• Spain goes back to its roots
• Reserve managers snub their nose at the euro
• Yen softens amidst talk of more BoJ easing

Daily Forex Brief London: Wednesday 18th April 2012

Back in black

Buoyed by more optimistic IMF global growth forecasts for 2012 and increasing speculation that Beijing will soon take further steps to ease financial conditions, the appetite for risk has suddenly improved. Also contributing to the more positive tone was some decent earnings news out of the US from the likes of Coca Cola overnight, some encouraging growth news out of Germany and acceptable auctions in Europe, notably Spain. Apple shares surged 5% amid hopes that next week's earnings will reveal strong demand for iPads. In addition, the falling price of Brent crude is helping to soothe nerves. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 jumped nearly 3% and is now back in the black for the year to date, while the S&P was up 1.6%, its best performance for a month. High-beta currencies such as the CAD and the Aussie did well, the latter now close to 1.04 again. Both the dollar and the Japanese yen have given back some of their recent gains.

Also in today's Daily Forex Brief:

• Euro whiplash
• UK inflation still uncomfortably high
• Lower oil price a welcome relief

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