Wednesday, 14 November 2012

Daily Morning Report 14/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis


  The dollar fell against most major global currencies on Wednesday after expectations that Greece may see bailout money flowing into the country soon. German newspaper Bild reported that Greece could receive EUR44 billion in various financial aid packages. Eurozone policymakers are scheduled to meet again to discuss Greece's finances on 20/11/2012, with a EUR31.5 billion of aid pending approval. Greece placed EUR4.06 billion in short-term government debt earlier, money that will help Athens to repay EUR5 billion in debt maturing on Friday.
  Later Wednesday, the Eurozone will release official data on industrial production, a leading indicator of economic health and the U.S. will unveil data on retail sales, producer price inflation and business inventories, and the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy-setting meeting.

Tuesday, 13 November 2012

Daily Afternoon Report 13/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis

The U.S. dollar was steady against the other major currencies on Tuesday, as amid ongoing uncertainty over aid payments to Greece and concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff.
The euro came off two-month lows against the greenback after German newspaper Bild reported that Greece could receive EUR44 billion of financial aid in one payment, citing German government sources.

Sentiment on the single currency was also boosted after Greece sold EUR4.06 billion of short term government bonds, which should help Athens to repay EUR5 billion of debts maturing on Friday.

But investors remained jittery amid concerns over a delayed bailout payment for Greece as officials from the International Monetary Fund and Europe disagreed on how best to reduce the country’s debt to manageable levels.

A decision on unlocking Greece’s next tranche of aid, worth EUR31.5 billion, has been postponed until 20 November.
The dollar traded slightly lower against the pound, since the pound found some support after official data showed that U.K. consumer prices rose sharply in October, as a result of increases in the cost of food, transport and university fees.
In other U.S. news, the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined by 5.4 points, or 10%, in November, posting 48.6 vs. 54 in October. The index is 0.4 points above its 12-month average of 48.2, 4.2 points above its reading of 44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered into the recession, and 1.3 points below its all-time average of 49.9.
Later on, the U.S. is to release official data on the federal budget balance.

Daily Morning Report 13/11/2012


The dollar rose against most major global currencies on Tuesday Asian session.
Mondays Eurogroup meeting ended with Eurozone finance ministers agreeing to extend Greece’s fiscal adjustment period by two years but deciding to put off until next week final decisions on the disbursement of the next Greek bailout tranche and the method to make the country’s debt sustainable. Once approved, the next shot of financial aid will end shorter-term solvency issues for Greece, but the country and creditors must still agree on ways to lower longer-term debt burdens, which dampened spirits.
The dollar also saw support on growing fears the U.S. risks falling into an avoidable recession in 2013. If untreated, the ‘’fiscal cliff’’ could siphon over USD600 billion out of the U.S. economy next year alone in the form of rising taxes and cuts to government spending.
Later Tuesday, the U.S. is to release official data on the federal budget balance. In Europe, the ZEW Centre for Economic Research will release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, as well as data on sentiment in the wider Eurozone.

Monday, 12 November 2012

Daily Afternoon Report 12/11/2012

The U.S. dollar was trading in tight ranges against the other major currencies on Monday, ahead of a meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels to discuss whether to release Greece’s next tranche of financial aid.
During European afternoon trade, the dollar eased back from a two-month high against the euro, since the euro found support after Greece’s government approved a budget of spending cuts and tax increases for 2013 late Sunday, just days after the parliament narrowly approved a EUR13.5 billion austerity package required to secure the country’s next installment of financial aid.
The eurogroup of finance ministers was to hold talks in Brussels later Monday, but no decision was expected to be taken ahead of an economic progress report from the troika. Speaking in Brussels ahead of the meeting, Mr. Juncker said he doesn't expect any "definitive" decisions on Greece on Monday, but he said Greece is in the process of meeting its commitments and he hopes the next tranche of financial aid will be agreed "as soon as possible."

Without the next aid installment, Greece risks default on November 16, when Athens must repay EUR5 billion of debts.
In other news, general strikes were called in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy on November 14th.

Meanwhile, ongoing concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff continued to underpin demand for the dollar.
The dollar was little changed against the yen earlier in the session after official data showed that Japan’s economy contracted by 3.5% in the third quarter compared to a year earlier as exports, consumption and business investment tumbled.

The report was offset by official data from China over the weekend showing that exports increased by 11.6% from a year earlier in October, while the trade surplus widened to the largest in almost four years.

In Australia, official data showed that home loan demand rose less-than-expected in September, increasing 0.9% slightly below expectations for a 1.0% rise.
Later Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel was to travel to Lisbon to hold talks with Portuguese political leaders, amid public opposition to the country’s austerity cuts.

Sunday, 11 November 2012

Daily Morning Report 12/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis


  The dollar fell against most major global currencies on Monday amid growing concerns regarding the US ‘’fiscal cliff’’ that could send the country into a recession next year. At the end of this year, tax breaks are set to expire and at the same time cuts to government spending are scheduled.
  In Europe Greek parliament approved a budget for next year, days after approving EUR13.5 billion in spending cuts and tax hikes needed to appease creditors. European and multilateral creditors required a new budget in order for Athens to tap fresh bailout money. European finance ministers are due to meet later in Brussels on Monday, though they may spend time reviewing Greece's commitment to austerity. Market participants, however, are not expecting European Union officials to disburse immediately the EUR31.5 billion fresh rescue funding to Greece.
  In Japan, official data revealed the economy contracted by annualized 3.5% in the third quarter of this year, which weakened the yen against the USD.
  Markets in the U.S. and Canada will be closed on Monday for national holidays.

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