Daily Forex Brief London: Tuesday 8th May 2012

Drawing the eurozone battle lines

After the initial weakening of the single currency on the back of the weekend's political developments in both France and Greece, the euro crawled back through most of Monday's session, although volumes were naturally muted by the London holiday. In France, there is a new President keen to rebalance the agenda in Europe towards growth and away from yet more austerity. In Greece, there is a mad scramble to try and form a government from the results of the latest election, which at present looks to be a tall order. Now, the task of forming a new government has fallen to the leader of the Syriza party, who is seeking to re-negotiate the bail-out terms. Meanwhile, writing in the FT today, the head of the German Bundesbank (Weidmann) has, in no uncertain terms, made clear that the ECB is not set to bow to pressure from anyone to do more to help. Not surprisingly, he is clear about the limits of what the ECB can achieve and shows no signs of giving ground to any fresh-faced European leaders. Politically at least, we are heading for a turbulent few weeks in Europ

Daily Forex Brief London: Friday 4th May 2012

Caution ahead of payrolls

Markets face up to the US jobs data today in tentative mood, Asian stocks having softened by the greatest degree in nearly two weeks overnight and the past two days having seen high-beta currencies, such as the Aussie and Korean won the weakest performers of the majors. The recent trend in jobless claims, together with the ADP data earlier in the week, have tempered expectations of a strong set of numbers, with the market looking for a 160k gain in headline payrolls following the softer 120k increase seen in March. Nevertheless, in the wider picture, expectations of further QE from the Fed have also been cut back, so it would take a pretty weak payrolls number to shift this expectation and knock the dollar from its relatively steady tone of the past month.

Daily Forex Brief London: Thursday 3rd May 2012

A dark and dismal Europe

A swathe of dismal economic news cast a long shadow across Europe yesterday, beating the single currency lower by nearly 1%. The manufacturing PMIs in the periphery for April were uniformly dreadful, Spain down to 43.6 and Italy to 43.8 (from 47.9 in March). For the latter, the new order balance saw the biggest monthly decline for three years, from 45.7 to 39.2, suggesting that there's not much on the horizon to turn around the fortunes of the manufacturing sector anytime soon. There was also a modest downward revision to the provisional PMI readings for both France and Germany, by 0.4 and 0.1 respectively, to 46.9 and 46.2. As if that wasn't bad enough, the unemployment rate in Italy jumped to a 12yr high of 9.8% in March (9.4% was expected), Germany recorded the largest monthly increase in unemployment (19k) for nearly two years, and the unemployment rate for the euro-area rose to a 15yr high. Today's ECB meeting is therefore extremely timely. At the very least, with recession deepening in a number of Eurozone economies, Mario Draghi and his men must be considering how they can ease financial conditions further. With the US recovery looking more assured these days, it is no wonder that the single currency took yesterday's smorgasbord of shocking news rather badly. It was also worth noting the response of peripheral bond markets to this darker economic landscape – bond yields rose markedly in both Italy and Spain, while the spread to Bunds at the long end widened by around 15bp. Both the dollar and the yen gained from this renewed burst of risk avoidance, while the Aussie dipped back to 1.03.

Daily Forex Brief London: Wednesday 2nd May 2012

A trans-Atlantic good-news story

Genuinely positive stories on the economic front are relatively rare these days, with no fewer than ten of the EU's 27 economies in recession and Australia's central bank forced to cut rates by 50bp yesterday in part because the non-mining economy is contracting. Thankfully, both Germany and America continue to defy the global gloom. In the US, the manufacturing sector is expanding at a respectable pace, propelled by solid growth of both domestic and export orders. Strong automobile-demand is making a significant contribution to the upturn in manufacturing – auto sales in the first quarter were the highest for four years and auto production accounted for roughly one-half of the growth in GDP in Q1. In response to this latest batch of healthy data, the Dow Jones index last night reached its highest level since the end of 2007. Over in Europe, the German labour market continues to forge ahead, with employment up another 37K in March, the 25th consecutive MoM gain. Currencies remain generally becalmed although, with a myriad of important economic releases due over coming days, we can expect volatility to increase. Friday's payrolls figures are critical following last month's disappointment.

Daily Forex Brief London: Tuesday 1st May 2012

RBA boldness should be applauded

Last night's decision by the RBA to lower the cash rate by 50bp to 3.75% ought to be applauded. Faced with an economy which, outside the mining sector, is in recession and with inflation likely to be lower than expected, policy-makers rightly decided that financial conditions needed to be loosened considerably. Australia's central bank would also be concerned by the continued decline in property prices – according to the ABS, established house prices fell by a further 1.1% in the first quarter, the fifth consecutive quarterly decline. More rate cuts are likely to be in the pipeline, judging by the level of term interest rates and the shape of the yield curve. For shorter-term maturities, yields fell by as much as 20bp overnight with the 2yr yield now just 2.8%! Both 5yr and 10yr bond yields fell to record lows. The RBA will also be pleased by the response of the currency, with the Aussie down 1% to just above 1.03. Last night's sudden drop aside, it is worth recognising that the AUD's recent performance has actually been remarkably resilient considering the significant narrowing in interest rate differentials. As we were suggesting yesterday, the key driver for the currency is invariably global risk appetite rather than domestic fundamentals.