Wednesday, 25 September 2013
Wednesday, 12 December 2012
Daily Morning Report 12/12/2012 | Forex Trading analysis
Following what has been an impressive run this year, the
Australian dollar took a small breather against its U.S. rival in Wednesday’s
Asian session. A weak batch of consumer data appeared to be the
culprit.
In
news published earlier, the Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer
Sentiment posted a surprise 4.1% month-on-month drop in
December to 100.0 when expectations were for an increase (rose 5.2% in November)
after the RBA cut the cash rate earlier this month. The index is now below the
November 2011 level when the RBA first cut the cash rate in the current easing
cycle with cuts totaling 175 basis points so far. While consumers with mortgages
responded positively to the RBA rate cut (confidence rose 4.4% for this
category), other respondents were quite downbeat.
In other news, the U.S. dollar was modestly higher against some of
its major rivals in Wednesday’s Asian session and fractionally lower against
some of the other majors as traders wait for headlines out of the Federal Open
Market Committee later today.
Later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve concludes its final monetary
policy meeting of the year and with U.S. interest rates at historic lows, there
is little room for the central bank to affect change on that front. However, the
dollar will be in play as traders await the Fed’s sentiment on additional
quantitative easing. Monetary stimulus typically depresses the dollar and drives
riskier assets higher.
Friday, 7 December 2012
Daily Morning Report 07/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
The number of Americans applying for first-time claims for
unemployment insurance payments came climbed less than expected. The Labour
Department reported that applications for unemployment benefits rose to 370,000
last week, following an upwardly revision to 395,000 from 393,000 initially
reported the previous week.
The BoE
left its monetary policy unchanged at today’s meeting, maintaining the main interest
rate at 0.5
percent and the asset purchases at £375 billion. Britain’s central bank is
in a difficult position as inflation remains above the target, limiting
the bank’s ability to ease the policy, while the recession calls for more
accommodative measures.
Eurozone GDP showed a third-quarter contraction of 0.1 percent, to
reflect a 0.6 percent drop in annual. German factory orders was the exception to
the overall negative tone with orders rising 3.9 percent in October, to
represent a 2.4 percent contraction in annual terms
Thursday, 6 December 2012
Daily Morning Report 06/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
The Aussie Dollar! traded higher as the unemployment rate in
Australia beat expectations edging slightly lower to 5.2 percent in November and
added 13,900 new workers to the labour force. Remarkably, the economy shed 4,200
full-time workers while it seems the gains in November were the result of adding
18,100 new part-time staffers. The participation rate remained unchanged at 65.1
percent
The services industry in the United States is in tune with
consumer spending figures than the ISM manufacturing report released fell to its
lowest level of the year at 49.5 in November continues to grow and at a fast
pace.
Decline came when sales of Spanish 3, 7, and 10-year bonds
disappointed a maximum target of 4.5 billion Euros by only raising 4.25 billion
in the auction. Euro-zone retail sales were reported to have
declined 1.2% in October, the disappointing
number kept EURUSD below 1.3100. Later today the ECB will announce the interest
rate expectations are for the rate to be left at 0.75%. Also, an updated
estimate of the Euro-zone GDP for Q3 will be released the previous estimate saw
a 0.1% decline.
Wednesday, 5 December 2012
Slight fall in New Business
The UK service sector registered little change in business activity during November as incoming new work fell slightly for the first time in nearly two years. A tough economic climate was commonly reported to have undermined efforts to secure new business. UK Stock! This also weighed on service sector confidence, with sentiment falling in November to the lowest of 2012 so far. After accounting for seasonal factors, the Business Activity Index recorded 50.2, compared to 50.6 in October.
US ADP
Private sector employment increased by 118,000 jobs from October to November, according to the November ADP National Employment Report®, which is produced by Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP®), a leading provider of human capital management solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Jobs! Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The October 2012 report, which reported job gains of 158,000, was revised down by 1,000 to 157,000 jobs.
ISM Services Gauge in U.S
The Institute for Supply Management’s
index of U.S. non-manufacturing businesses, which covers about 90 percent of the
economy, rose to 54.7 in November from the prior month’s 54.2, the Tempe,
Arizona-based group said today. ISM! Readings above 50 signal expansion, and
estimates ranged from 51 to 54.7. The ISM services survey covers industries
ranging from utilities and retailing to housing, health care and finance.
Tuesday, 4 December 2012
Daily Afternoon Report 04/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
The US dollar was
broadly lower against the other major currencies as investor confidence was
boosted by hopes that Greece’s plan to buy back debt will succeed. EURUSD found
support after Greece launched a scheme to buy back its debt from private
investors, as part of an agreement to unlock a new bailout package worth EUR44
billion. European Union finance ministers were holding talks in Brussels on
Tuesday, to discuss banking supervision in the euro zone.
The GBP remained supported after data showed that construction sector activity in the U.K. unexpectedly declined to a three month low in November.
The yen strengthened after Monday’s weak U.S. manufacturing data and ongoing concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff enhanced the safe haven appeal of the currency.
Click Here! The Australian dollar turned higher earlier after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to 3% from 3.25% in a widely anticipated decision. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian dollar remains “higher than might have been expected” given lower export prices and a weaker global outlook.
The GBP remained supported after data showed that construction sector activity in the U.K. unexpectedly declined to a three month low in November.
The yen strengthened after Monday’s weak U.S. manufacturing data and ongoing concerns over the U.S. fiscal cliff enhanced the safe haven appeal of the currency.
Click Here! The Australian dollar turned higher earlier after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark interest rate to 3% from 3.25% in a widely anticipated decision. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said the Australian dollar remains “higher than might have been expected” given lower export prices and a weaker global outlook.
Monday, 3 December 2012
Technical Level
|
EUR/USD
|
GBP/USD
|
USD/JPY
|
AUD/USD
|
USD/CAD
|
USD/CHF
| |
|
R3:
|
1.3090
|
1.6137
|
82.33
|
1.0476
|
0.9971
|
0.9282
|
|
R2:
|
1.3075
|
1.6118
|
82.19
|
1.0466
|
0.9965
|
0.9275
|
|
R1:
|
1.3059
|
1.6100
|
82.12
|
1.0449
|
0.9957
|
0.9267
|
|
S1:
|
1.3045
|
1.6082
|
82.05
|
1.0432
|
0.9949
|
0.9252
|
|
S2:
|
1.3031
|
1.6064
|
81.91
|
1.0422
|
0.9942
|
0.9245
|
|
S3:
|
1.3015
|
1.6045
|
81.77
|
1.0395
|
0.9927
|
0.9238
|
Daily Morning Report 04/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
The Australian Dollar rallied versus the U.S. Dollar as the
Reserve Bank of Australia cut the benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points to
3.00 percent which was in-line with market expectations of a 90 percent
probability that the RBA would cut the cost of capital
today.
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The global PMI release period was off to a good start, with
outperformance in Asia and mostly floundering in Europe. US failed to hold its
own, with its equivalent to the PMI, the ISM Manufacturing index, falling back
into contraction, to its lowest official reading of the year. Just when US
economic data was turning higher, it now appears to be
backpedalling.
Greece offered to buy back as much as 10-billion Euros of bonds
issued in a restructuring earlier this year, as an attempt to cut its debt load.
The government said they will buy back bonds in a so called Dutch auction, and
the government is willing to pay an average maximum purchase price of 34.1% for
bonds maturing from 2023 to 2042.
ECB and BoE are widely expected to maintain their current policy Forex Bulletproof 2.0 Patented Striker Technology!
in December, we anticipate the Governing Council to strike a more dovish tone
for monetary policy as the deepening recession in the euro-area threatens price
stability. ECB President Mario Draghi may show a greater willingness to ease
monetary policy further. BoE appears to be slowly moving away from its easing
cycle as inflation stubbornly holds above the 2%
target.
Technical Levels
|
EUR/USD
|
GBP/USD
|
USD/JPY
|
AUD/USD
|
USD/CAD
|
USD/CHF
| |
|
R3:
|
1.3075
|
1.6104
|
82.89
|
1.0479
|
0.9957
|
0.9297
|
|
R2:
|
1.3059
|
1.6090
|
82.75
|
1.0467
|
0.9942
|
0.9277
|
|
R1:
|
1.3045
|
1.6076
|
82.54
|
1.0447
|
0.9935
|
0.9268
|
|
S1:
|
1.3015
|
1.6030
|
82.19
|
1.0403
|
0.9919
|
0.9258
|
|
S2:
|
1.2985
|
1.6021
|
82.11
|
1.0383
|
0.9912
|
0.9248
|
|
S3:
|
1.2971
|
1.5998
|
82.05
|
1.0362
|
0.9906
|
0.9239
|
Daily Afternoon Report 03/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
The euro pushed higher
Monday after Greece launched a scheme to buy back its debt from private
investors, as part of an agreement to unlock a new bailout package worth EUR44
billion.
Euro zone finance ministers
were to hold talks in Brussels later in the day to discuss the terms of the new
Greek aid deal, after Germany’s parliament gave it the green light on Friday.
Furthermore, euro showed little reaction after Spain formally requested a
bailout worth EUR37 billion for its banking sector.
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Elsewhere, data showed that
the final euro zone manufacturing purchasing managers’ index remained unchanged
at 46.2 in November, the highest level since March, but remaining in contraction
territory for the 16th consecutive month.
In the U.K., data showed that
the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.1 last month, its highest level since August,
from October's downwardly revised 47.3 and beating expectations for a reading of
48.1. However, the index remained below the 50.0 level which separates
contraction from expansion for the seventh successive month.
Earlier Monday, official data
showed that retail sales in Switzerland rose by 2.7% in October, less than the
expected 4.1% increase. A separate report showed that the SVME PMI rose to 48.5
in November, a four-month high, from a reading of 46.1 in
October.
In other news, the yen
remained under pressure ahead of upcoming elections on December 16 which could
lead to further monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, whereas the Australian
dollar remained also under pressure after official data were published showing
that domestic retail sales were flat in October fuelled expectations for a rate
cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its policy meeting on
Tuesday.
In latest news, the Institute
for Supply Management’s U.S. factory index fell to 49.5 in November from 51.7 a
month earlier, the Tempe, Arizona-based group said today. The dividing line
between expansion and contraction is 50, and economists’ estimates ranged from
49 to 53.5.
Daily Morning Report 03/12/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
The Australian dollar traded lower versus the greenback as
Australian business’ reported a 2.9 percent operating loss in the third quarter
while inventories increased by 1.1 percent suggesting the overall economic
climate appears to have slowed.
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The greenback has gained strongly versus the yen after the
dissolution of parliament in Japan and the dollar yen rate has increased over 3%
on the monthly basis; this scripts the largest increase since February this
year.
The euro suffered a bit of a setback as the wake of Moody's
downgrade of the euro zone rescue fund late last week. China's official
manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to a 7-month high of 50.6 in
November from 50.2 in October, following a preliminary private sector survey
that showed factory activity reviving to a 13-month
high.
Thursday, 29 November 2012
Daily Afternoon Report 29/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
The U.S. dollar was broadly lower against the other major
currencies on Thursday, as hopes for headway in tackling the U.S. fiscal cliff
dampened safe haven demand for the greenback ahead of U.S. data on third quarter
growth later in the session.
Meanwhile, the euro hit fresh session highs against the U.S. Click Here!
dollar on Thursday, after official data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a
faster rate than initially estimated during the third quarter of 2012, as export
figures were revised up.
As the Commerce Department said, gross domestic product expanded
by 2.7% in the three months to September, up from a preliminary estimate of
2.0%, but below expectations for growth of 2.8%.
Separately, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell 393,000 from 416,000 the previous week, slightly less than expectations for a decline to 390,000.
Separately, the U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell 393,000 from 416,000 the previous week, slightly less than expectations for a decline to 390,000.
Elsewhere Europe, Italy saw borrowing costs fall sharply at an
auction of five and 10-year government bonds on Thursday, with the yield on
10-year bonds down to 4.45%, a two year low and the yield on five-year bonds
falling to 3.23%, also a two-year low.
In addition to that, official data showed that the German
unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.9% in November as the number of
unemployed people rose by 5,000, better than expectations for an increase of
15,000.
In other news, the Bank of England warned earlier that U.K. banks
may not have enough capital put aside to insulate them from future financial
market shocks.
Finally, the yen remained under pressure amid expectations that
upcoming elections on December 16 will result in growing political pressure on
the Bank of Japan to implement more aggressive monetary easing
measures.
Later Thursday, German Bundesbank President is due to speak at the
Christian Democratic Union Economics Council in
Berlin.
Daily Morning Report 29/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
The
dollar fell against the major currencies on Thursday. President Obama told the
world that “something will be done” to steer the country away from the fiscal
cliff, which boosted the euro on sentiment U.S. policymakers will put politics
aside and make tough tax and spending reforms needed to avoid the cliff. U.S.,
the Commerce Department reported earlier that new home sales fell by 0.3% to a
seasonally adjusted 368,000 units in October, confounding expectations for an
increase to 390,000.
Later
Thursday, the U.S. is to produce revised data on third quarter gross domestic
product, as well as data on pending home sales and initial jobless
claims.
Wednesday, 28 November 2012
Daily Afternoon Report 28/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
Greece
bailout agreement, most of the responding chatter has already been exhausted,
and we have been left in today’s European session without a major fundamental
story to guide trading. Data
showing U.S. consumer confidence at a four-year high also provided a modest
boost for the dollar, though a looming budget crisis tempered optimism about the
American economy and kept dollar gains in check.
The agreement
to provide aid for Greece did not help the market sentiment. In fact, that
agreement may fail as the International Monetary Fund did not accept its terms. The inability of the US
politicians to find a compromise and avoid the fiscal cliff did not help traders’ confidence
either.
The Australian dollar fell against the Japanese yen and the US
dollar yesterday and remained soft today. Like its Canadian counterpart,
the Aussie managed to strengthen versus the euro.
Tuesday, 27 November 2012
Daily Morning Report 28/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
In
Asian trading on Wednesday dollar traded mixed to lower against the world's
major global currencies on growing fears regarding actions US policymakers need
to take to steer the American economy away of the ‘’fiscal cliff’’ as time is
running out. EURUSD was down on fears that despite a recent deal that will free
up aid to Greece, the broader European debt crisis won't abate anytime soon.
Many investors seeking safe haven opted for the yen.
Yesterday
Conference Board, a market research group, reported that its index of consumer
confidence rose to 73.7 in November from a reading of 73.1 in October, whose
figure was revised up from 72.2. In other announcement the U.S. Census Bureau
reported that core durable goods orders, which exclude volatile transportation
items, rose by a seasonally adjusted 1.5% in October. Total orders for durable
goods were unchanged last month compared to expectations for a 0.6% decline.
Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index rose at an annualized rate
of 3.0% in September from a year earlier, beating expectations for a 2.9%
increase.
Later,
the US is to release official data on new home sales, a leading indicator of
economic health, as well as government data on crude oil inventories. Also the
Fed is to publish its Beige Book.
Daily Afternoon Report 27/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
The Europe we saw at the beginning of today’s session was very
different than the Europe of yesterday, at least from a trader’s perspective.
Euro-zone leaders came to an
agreement on Greece that lowered interest rates,
returned some of the money made off of previous loans, and setup the release of
the next 34.4 billion Euro aid tranche in December. The Euro has now erased all
of the gains following the Greece announcement and is trading slight above
1.2950 against the US Dollar in currency markets.
UK gross domestic product for Q3 confirmed 1.0% economic expansion
over the quarter, as the Olympics and previous quarter’s Jubilee holiday gave
the UK a one-time spike in growth. Office for National Statistics’ release,
output in production industries rose by only 0.9%, down from a previously
estimated 1.1%. Service industry was confirmed to have seen a 1.3% rise in
output.
The US Dollar rose a bit when Fed member Fisher said during a
speech in Berlin that he advocates setting limits to QE as soon as the next
meeting. Fisher said that the US’s biggest problem is unemployment and that
inflation is under control in the US.
Monday, 26 November 2012
Daily Morning Report 27/11/2012
The dollar weakened
against the world's major global currencies on Tuesday after IMF and EU
policymakers agreed to reduce Greece's debt-reduction target by EUR40 billion to
124% of gross domestic product by 2020, an accord needed by IMF to free up aid.
Greece will cut debt burdens down further to 110% by 2022, while EU and IMF
policymakers agreed to trim interest rates on Greek loans, extend their maturity
by 15-30 years, and grant the country a 10-year interest repayment deferral.
Greece is set to avoid default.
In Spain’s Catalonia region
separatist parties won the majority of the public vote in elections held over
the weekend, which tempered the euro's rally. Catalonia accounts for nearly a
fifth of Spain's economic activity and provides the most tax revenue to the
central government.
Later US are to release official data on
durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as industry
data on house price inflation. US consumer confidence data will also be
published and FED chairman is to deliver brief remarks at
the National College Fed Challenge Finals, in Washington DC.
Daily Morning Report 26/11/2012 | Forex Trading Analysis
The dollar gains against the major global
currencies on Monday as investors parked in the safe-haven greenback waiting to
see if Eurozone and IMF will work out a deal to help Greece. The IMF, EU finance
ministers and officials from the European Central Bank are due to meet on Monday
to discuss freeing up pending aid for Greece. European governments support
giving Greece a two-year extension to cut the country's debt to 120% of GDP by
2022, a proposal at which the IMF has balked. Investors hope that all sides
strike a deal and free up aid earmarked for Athens, though until such an
announcement becomes public, the dollar will be the safe-heaven.
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