It's a reasonable question and one which many were asking themselves on Friday in the wake of the disappointing US jobs data. There was also an expectation of some statement from EU and/or G7 leaders over the weekend to offer reassurance to markets. As it was, there was nothing of substance, with the result that Asian equities were down over 2% today, with the fall in Chinese stocks the biggest for two months. The latest PMI data for the services industry showed a further modest slowdown in China. So looking around the world economy, there are currently few signs of decent momentum, either in the emerging or developed world. Still, if the German newspaper Welt-am-Sonntag it to be believed, EU leaders are drawing up a crisis plan to be ready by the end of the month. This reportedly contains many of the measures (integrated budget policy, banking union, and political union) at which many member states, notably Germany, have balked at in the past. But the truth is that we are at the point where bold measures will have to be taken if the euro is to stand a chance of staying intact. Incremental, compromised and late initiatives have failed spectacularly.
Monday, 4 June 2012
Friday, 1 June 2012
Daily Forex Brief London: Friday 1st June 2012
It's gearing up to be a busy Friday. We've already had manufacturing PMI data in China coming in softer than expected, falling to 50.4 (from 53.3). In Europe, markets are understandably nervous, the euro once again having traded at a new low for the year as Asia (at 1.2324), whilst Spain has denied speculation that it is talking to the IMF about possible aid. Meanwhile, there were some fairly critical words for European leaders from the head of the ECB yesterday, saying that it was not the ECB's job to "fill the vacuum left by the lack of action by national governments". The results from the Irish referendum on the fiscal compact are also expected today and whilst a 'yes' vote is pretty much assured, history is scattered with surprise referendum decisions in Europe. Not for the first time, markets will be looking to the US to provide some good news, with the April employment report released this afternoon. Hopes are for a modest recovery from the 115k increase seen in April, the 150k expected gain would take payrolls back to the average of the past 6 months. Meanwhile, yields on German 2 year bonds have touched negative territory this morning, an illustration of the ever more dis-jointed markets we are seeing.
Thursday, 31 May 2012
Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates
Latest Previous %Chg Daily Daily %Chg Dollar Rates Close High Low 12/31 USD/JPY Japan 78.42-46 78.30-33 +0.16 78.65 78.32 +1.98 EUR/USD Euro 1.2349-52 1.2362-65 -0.11 1.2368 1.2324 -4.70 GBP/USD U.K. 1.5374-78 1.5402-10 -0.19 1.5409 1.5368 -1.07 USD/CHF Switzerland 0.9720-24 0.9713-17 +0.07 0.9744 0.9712 +3.73 USD/CAD Canada 1.0347-52 1.0326-31 +0.20 1.0362 1.0320 +1.37 AUD/USD Australia 0.9690-94 0.9732-36 -0.43 0.9734 0.9650 -5.06 NZD/USD New Zealand 0.7516-22 0.7529-34 -0.16 0.7536 0.7486 -3.31 Euro Rates EUR/JPY Japan 96.85-90 96.81-85 +0.05 97.10 96.80 -2.70 EUR/GBP U.K. 0.8032-35 0.8024-28 +0.09 0.8033 0.8018 -5.01 EUR/CHF Switzerland 1.2008-12 1.2009-13 -0.01 1.2013 1.2010 -1.33 EUR/CAD Canada 1.2780-88 1.2766-73 +0.11 1.2783 1.2754 -3.39 EUR/AUD Australia 1.2741-48 1.2698-705 +0.34 1.2775 1.2686 +0.38 EUR/DKK Denmark 7.4287-332 7.4292-333 0.00 7.4335 7.4244 -0.06 EUR/NOK Norway 7.5572-648 7.5606-72 -0.04 7.5667 7.5534 -2.38 EUR/SEK Sweden 8.9834-914 8.9835-912 +0.00 8.9928 8.9662 +0.79 EUR/CZK Czech Rep. 25.707-46 25.681-752 +0.04 25.753 25.606 +0.51 EUR/HUF Hungary 300.66-1.38 300.46-1.14 +0.07 300.99 300.90 -4.47 EUR/PLN Poland 4.3886-4040 4.3834-943 +0.17 4.3965 4.3796 -1.59 Yen Rates AUD/JPY Australia 76.00-06 76.20-27 -0.27 76.47 75.80 -2.80 GBP/JPY U.K. 120.56-66 120.60-70 -0.03 121.04 120.61 +0.89 CAD/JPY Canada 75.75-83 75.79-87 -0.05 76.08 75.78 +0.61 NZD/JPY New Zealand 58.94-9.02 58.95-9.02 -0.01 59.19 58.81 -1.39 Other Dollar Rates USD/CZK Czech Rep. 20.815-44 20.773-828 +0.14 20.862 20.716 +5.46 USD/HUF Hungary 243.46-4.00 243.04-55 +0.18 243.97 243.36 +0.24 USD/DKK Denmark 6.0152-78 6.0095-117 +0.10 6.0296 6.0086 +4.87 USD/NOK Norway 6.1191-242 6.1157-200 +0.06 6.1359 6.1096 +2.43 USD/PLZ Poland 3.5536-654 3.5457-541 +0.27 3.5608 3.5452 +3.26 USD/RUB Russia 33.419-524 33.306-416 +0.33 33.640 33.280 +4.11 USD/SEK Sweden 7.2741-92 7.2666-717 +0.10 7.2905 7.2616 +5.77 USD/ZAR S. Africa 8.5073-224 8.5156-272 -0.08 8.5647 8.4964 +5.29 USD/CNY China 6.3667-88 6.3685-706 -0.03 6.3715 6.3684 +0.77 USD/HKD Hong Kong 7.7610-16 7.7617-27 -0.01 7.7634 7.7612 -0.07 USD/MYR Malaysia 3.1777-878 3.1682-748 +0.35 3.1880 3.1742 +0.17 USD/INR India 56.078-93 56.033-48 +0.08 56.078 56.093 +5.77 USD/IDR Indonesia 9302-63 9400-0 -0.72 9392 9300 +3.32 USD/PHP Philippines 43.445-646 43.326-570 +0.22 43.605 43.526 -0.69 USD/SGD Singapore 1.2865-72 1.2882-90 -0.14 1.2906 1.2864 -0.74 USD/KRW S. Korea 1179.39-80.00 1179.29-81.80 -0.07 1182.99 1180.00 +1.65 USD/TWD Taiwan 29.839-940 29.829-90 +0.10 29.879 29.870 -1.24 USD/THB Thailand 31.778-836 31.793-856 -0.05 31.881 31.828 +0.66 USD/VND Vietnam 20595-1252 20805-70 +0.41 20595 21252 -0.54 USD/BRR Brazil 2.0215-46 2.0219-50 -0.02 2.0255 2.0234 +8.44 USD/MXN Mexico 14.4206-434 14.3643-731 +0.44 14.4662 14.3320 +3.48 USD/ARS Argentina 4.4642-716 4.4657-730 -0.03 4.4676 4.4710 +3.69 Source: ICAP Plc.(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 31, 2012 22:50 ET (02:50 GMT)
-The State Bank of Vietnam Friday set the exchange rate for the U.S
Friday Thursday Official USD/VND rate: VND20,828 VND20,828 Vietcombank rate: VND20,840-VND20,890 VND20,840-VND20,890 Gold shop rate: VND20,870-VND20,890 VND20,860-VND20,890HANOI (Dow Jones)--The State Bank of Vietnam Friday set the exchange rate for the U.S. dollar at VND20,828, unchanged from Thursday.
Rates offered by major commercial banks led by Vietcombank are steady, while gold shops have slightly raised their selling rate.
"Forex trading activity in the interbank market is lackluster because of weak corporate demand for the greenback as many trading firms still report slow sales of imported materials and goods," said a foreign exchange dealer with a Hanoi-based commercial joint stock bank.
Many domestic firms have reportedly said they faced rising inventories in May because of weak consumption caused by ongoing recession, the dealer said.
Dollar demand from importers of staple items declined after the import value of gasoline fell 13.3% on year to $3.98 billion over January-May, while automobile imports fell 36% to $845 million during the same period, said the dealer, citing government trade data released this week.
Another dealer with Ho Chi Minh City-based ACB Bank said though Vietnam reported a trade deficit of $700 million in May, the deficit was only $632 million for the January-May period compared with a deficit of more than $6.25 billion booked for the same period last year.
"These figures show that Vietnam has faced no immediate dollar shortage, and I expect the exchange rate to be flat in the near term," the dealer said.
Currency dealers with banks and gold shops in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City forecast the free market rate to move in a range of VND20,870 to VND20,900 over the weekend.
-By Nguyen Pham Muoi, Dow Jones Newswires; 84-4-35123041; phammuoi.nguyen@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
May 31, 2012 22:30 ET (02:30 GMT)
HSBC's China
0240 GMT [Dow Jones] HSBC's China PMI, a competing measure to the official PMI
which is better regarded by many analysts, declined to 48.4 in May, compared to
49.3 in April and an earlier preliminary reading of 48.7. The series has been in
contractionary territory below 50 for seven straight months, in contrast to the
official CFLP PMI, which posted a rise to 53.3 in April before falling to 50.4
in May. The April CFLP PMI reading has been widely viewed with suspicion in
markets, as other April data was weak across-the-board. In a note on Thursday,
Capital Economics said the HSBC PMI is more reliable due to better seasonal
adjustment and a higher sampling of small, private-sector firms. The HSBC index
"is more representative of the manufacturing sector as a whole," Capital
Economics said. "It is also independent of official control."
(aaron.back@dowjones.com)
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